Suppose that you are using exponential smoothing methods with different alpha values to forecast the monthly sales at a local store. If ES$(0\mathrm{.}2)$ gives a MAD of $2\mathrm{.}5$ and ES$(0\mathrm{.}6)$ gives a MAD of $4,$ which method is better?

ES$(0\mathrm{.}6)$

ES$(0\mathrm{.}2)$