Question: Suppose two equally matched baseball teams (Team A and Team B) are playing in a World Series in which the winner is the 1stteam to
Suppose two equally matched baseball teams (Team A and Team B) are playing in a World Series in which the winner is the 1stteam to win 4 games.After 2 games, the series must be halted due to unforeseen circumstances.At that time, Team A leads Team B (2 games to 0 games).The Baseball Commissioner decides to divide the $10 million that would normally go to the winner between the two teams.He calculates P(Team A would have won the series) and P(Team B would have won the series) assuming that the teams are exactly evenly matched.He divides the money up proportionately using these probabilities.How much money should Team A receiveand how much money should Team B receive?
Hint: You can set this up as a tree diagram, with the Branches representing thepossiblewinning Teamfor each upcoming game(if the game were to be played).Below you will see the first set of branches of the tree.This first set of branches represents the outcomes of Game #3.If Team Aendedup winning(the upper branch of the tree) then Team Awould havewon 3Games and Team Bwouldnothavewon any games. If Team Bended up winningGame #3 then Team Awould have won2 games and Team Bwould havewon one game.Now proceed to the next set of Branches which will represent the Game 4possibleoutcomes. Onceone of the Teams wins 4 games along any branching you can stop extending that particular branch.Since we assume that the Teams are evenly matched, each individual branch has probability = 0.5.Once you have completed all the possible scenarios, calculate the probabilities along each set of branches that leads to a specific outcome.Then calculate the overall probability that TeamA would have won the series and the overall probability that TeamB would have won the series.Multiply these probabilities by the total amount of money to determine how much each team should receive.
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