Suppose your expectations regarding the stock market next year can be modeled by the following distribution: State
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Question:
Suppose your expectations regarding the stock market next year can be modeled by the following distribution: | ||||||||||||||||||
State of the Economy | Probability | HPR (%) | ||||||||||||||||
Boom | 0.3 | 44 | ||||||||||||||||
Normal growth | 0.4 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||
Recession | 0.3 | -16 | ||||||||||||||||
Use the above distribution to compute your expected return of the stock market. | ||||||||||||||||||
(Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your final answers to two decimal places.) | ||||||||||||||||||
Expected Return= | % | |||||||||||||||||
Another analyst has different opinions regarding the probablities of Boom and Recession states, | ||||||||||||||||||
, though she agrees with you on all the other numbers in the table. | ||||||||||||||||||
You know that her expected stock market return is only 10%. What is the Boom probablity she has in mind? | ||||||||||||||||||
Enter decimals for this box. For example, 0.2, 0.56. Keep two decimal places | ||||||||||||||||||
Boom Probablity= | ||||||||||||||||||
(Hint: You will need to reverse engineer the calculation in step 1 and solve an equation if necessary. Remember that all the probabilities in a distribution must sum up to 1. ) |
Related Book For
Investments
ISBN: 978-0071338875
8th Canadian Edition
Authors: Zvi Bodie, Alex Kane, Alan Marcus, Stylianos Perrakis, Peter
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