TABLE $8\mathrm{.}5|$ FOUR$-$YEAR DEMAND HISTORY FOR THE BOW RAKE

$\backslash$table$[[$Month$,$Year $1,$DEMAND,Year $4],[$Year $2,$Year $3],[1,55,220,39,875,32,180,62,377],[2,57,350,64,128,38,600,66,501],[3,15,445,47,653,25,020,31,404],[4,27,776,43,050,51,300,36,504],[5,21,408,39,359,31,790,16,888],[6,17,118,10,317,32,100,18,909],[7.,18,028,45,194,59,832,35,500],[8,19,883,46\mathrm{.}530,30,740,51,250],[9,15,796,22,105,47,800,34,443],[10,53,665,41,350,73,890,68,088],[11,83,269,46,024,60,202,68,175],[12,72,991,41,856,55,200,61,100]]$

Things do not change much from year to year. Sure, sometines we put on a sales promotion of some kind, but we try to give Phil enough warning before the demand kicks in$-$usually a month or so$.$ I meet with several managers from the various sales regions to go over shipping data from last year and discuss anticipated promotions, changes in the economy, and shortages ve experienced last year. Based on these meetings, I generate a monthly forecast for the next year. Even though we take a lot of time getting the forecast, it never seems to help us avoid customer problems.

The Problem

Place ponders the comments from Stanton and Adams. She understands Stanton's concerns about costs and keeping inventory low and Adams'

concern about having enough rakes on hand to make timely shipments. Both are also somewhat concerned about capacity. Yet she decides to check actual customer demand for the bow rake over the past $4$ years $($in Table $8\mathrm{.}5)$ before making her final report to Roberts.

QUESTIONS

Comment on the forecasting system being used by Yankee. Suggest changes or improvements that you believe are justified.

Develop your own forecast for bow rakes for each month of the next year $($year $5).$ Justify your forecast and the method you used.

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Things do not change much from year to year. Sure, sometimes we put on a sales promotion of some kind, but we try to give Phil enough warning before the demand kids in$-$usually a month or so$.$ I meet with several managers from the various sales regions to go over shipping data from last year and discuss anticipated promotions, changes in the economy, and shortages we experienced last year. Based on these meetings, I generate a monthly forecast for the next year. Even though we take a lot of time getting the forecast, it never seems to help us avoid customer problems.

The Problem

Place ponders the comments from Stanton and Adams. She understands Stanton's concerns about costs and keeping inventory low and Adams'

concern about having enough rakes on hand to make timely shipments. Both are also somevihat concerned about capacity. Yet she decides to check actual customer demand for the bow rake over the past $4$ years $($in Table $8\mathrm{.}5)$ before making her final report to Roberts.

QUESTIONS

Comment on the forecasting system being used by Yankee. Suggest changes or improvements that you believe are justified.

Develop your own forecast for bow rakes for each month of the next year $($year $5).$ Justify your forecast and the method you used.