Question: Task 2 - Demand Forecasting Mahindra Powerol is a leading brand of diesel generator across India. The sales of Powerol diesel generators over the past

Task 2 - Demand Forecasting Mahindra Powerol is a leading brand of diesel generator across India. The sales of Powerol diesel generators over the past 12-month period of year 2020 is given in Table T2. 420 460 510 520 460 520 490 620 Month Actual units sold January 2020 480 February 2020 March 2020 470 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 570 November 2020 640 December 2020 Table T2 - Sales Data of Year 2020 a. Develop a simple regression model of forecast with the data given in the Table T2 and determine the mean squared error (MSE) of the model. (10 Marks) b. Calculate the monthly demand forecast for the 6-month period from January 2021 to June 2021 using 3-month simple moving average method. (06 Marks) C. Calculate the monthly demand forecast for the 6-month period from January 2021 to June 2021 using 4-month weighted moving average method. Use weights of 0.4,0.3.0.2 and 0.1, with heavier weights for more recent months. (06 Marks) d. Use exponential smoothing with smoothing parameter a = 0.4 and 0.2 to compute the demand forecast for January 2021. Use linear average for the first three months to forecast the demand of January 2020. Determine the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of the forecasts and suggest which forecasted data would be more accurate. (08 Marks) [Total marks 301

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