Task 2-0 Students should structure and present their Assignment 2 in the form of a Managerial Report. The expected length of the main body (tasks 2-1 to 2-4) is up to 3 pages APA format, excluding cover page, table of content, executive summary (task 2-5), and appendices (screenshots of the Payoff Table, EMV Table, Sensitivity Analysis Diagram, TreePlan Diagram of the Decision Tree). Submission requirements: Managerial Report (word file), and excel file with completed worksheets (iii) to (vi). 1 Task 2-1 Prepare payoff tables and develop a decision tree for this problem (without probabilities and EMVs). 2 Task 2-2 Given the probability of all three economic conditions and using expected monetary values (EMVs), calculate EMVs for each node and answer the questions: (1) What's the EMV for not hiring a business analyst and the EMV for hiring a business analyst? (2) What is your recommendation: to hire or not to hire a business analyst? 2 Task 2-3 Use sensitivity analysis to define the probability range with respect to the survey results which might affect the decision to hire or not to hire a business analyst, draw the sensitivity chart, and find the probability for their cross point. 2 Task 2-4 Apply a software tool for the construction of a decision tree with payoffs, probabilities, and EMVs. The recommended tool is TreePlan: a Microsoft Excel Add-Ins (it is preinstalled on all V-PCs of the MET V-LABs) 2 Task 2-5 Prepare an executive summary 1 List of Worksheets in the Excel File (it should be used as a reference for different tasks of the managerial report) A2 Text (i) (ii) (iii) Payoff Table - Template Payoff Table - Solution and a sketch of a decision tree (without probability and EMVS) --> Needed for Task 2-1 EMV Calculation: use EMV as a decision criterion for each decision nodes and states of nature nodes, calculate the EMV for each node, and recommend whether to hireot to hire a business analyst --> Needed for Task 2-2 (iv) (v) Sensitivity Analysis Diagram: compute the probability of survey results and define the range of probability values that the real estate company would hire or not hire a business analyst (including the probability of the cross point) --> Needed for Task 2-3 (vi) TreePlan Diagram of the Decision Tree: use BU MET V-LAB for Excel Add-In TreePlan --> Needed for Task 2-4 Alternatives Apartment Building Office Building Warehouse Probability Optimistic Conditions 220000 350000 420000 0.35 Realistic Conditions 110000 220000 370000 0.52 Pessimistic Conditions - 140000 - 150000 - 180000 0.13 Fee for Survey Probability of survey results positive Probability of survey results negative 8000 0.57 0.43 If the analysis report results positive probability Optimistic Conditions 0.64 Realistic Conditions 0.25 Pessimistic Conditions 0.11 If the analysis report results negative probability Optimistic Conditions 0.13 Realistic Conditions 0.33 Pessimistic Conditions 0.54 Task 2-0 Students should structure and present their Assignment 2 in the form of a Managerial Report. The expected length of the main body (tasks 2-1 to 2-4) is up to 3 pages APA format, excluding cover page, table of content, executive summary (task 2-5), and appendices (screenshots of the Payoff Table, EMV Table, Sensitivity Analysis Diagram, TreePlan Diagram of the Decision Tree). Submission requirements: Managerial Report (word file), and excel file with completed worksheets (iii) to (vi). 1 Task 2-1 Prepare payoff tables and develop a decision tree for this problem (without probabilities and EMVs). 2 Task 2-2 Given the probability of all three economic conditions and using expected monetary values (EMVs), calculate EMVs for each node and answer the questions: (1) What's the EMV for not hiring a business analyst and the EMV for hiring a business analyst? (2) What is your recommendation: to hire or not to hire a business analyst? 2 Task 2-3 Use sensitivity analysis to define the probability range with respect to the survey results which might affect the decision to hire or not to hire a business analyst, draw the sensitivity chart, and find the probability for their cross point. 2 Task 2-4 Apply a software tool for the construction of a decision tree with payoffs, probabilities, and EMVs. The recommended tool is TreePlan: a Microsoft Excel Add-Ins (it is preinstalled on all V-PCs of the MET V-LABs) 2 Task 2-5 Prepare an executive summary 1 List of Worksheets in the Excel File (it should be used as a reference for different tasks of the managerial report) A2 Text (i) (ii) (iii) Payoff Table - Template Payoff Table - Solution and a sketch of a decision tree (without probability and EMVS) --> Needed for Task 2-1 EMV Calculation: use EMV as a decision criterion for each decision nodes and states of nature nodes, calculate the EMV for each node, and recommend whether to hireot to hire a business analyst --> Needed for Task 2-2 (iv) (v) Sensitivity Analysis Diagram: compute the probability of survey results and define the range of probability values that the real estate company would hire or not hire a business analyst (including the probability of the cross point) --> Needed for Task 2-3 (vi) TreePlan Diagram of the Decision Tree: use BU MET V-LAB for Excel Add-In TreePlan --> Needed for Task 2-4 Alternatives Apartment Building Office Building Warehouse Probability Optimistic Conditions 220000 350000 420000 0.35 Realistic Conditions 110000 220000 370000 0.52 Pessimistic Conditions - 140000 - 150000 - 180000 0.13 Fee for Survey Probability of survey results positive Probability of survey results negative 8000 0.57 0.43 If the analysis report results positive probability Optimistic Conditions 0.64 Realistic Conditions 0.25 Pessimistic Conditions 0.11 If the analysis report results negative probability Optimistic Conditions 0.13 Realistic Conditions 0.33 Pessimistic Conditions 0.54