Tesla Valuation Model assumptions based on anaylst reports Upside YOY Revenue Growth Downside YOY Revenue Growth...
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Tesla Valuation Model assumptions based on anaylst reports Upside YOY Revenue Growth Downside YOY Revenue Growth Base Case YOY Revenue Growth Total Cost of Revenue (% of Rev) R&D YOY Growth SG&A YOY Growth Depreciation (% of Rev) CapEx (% of Depr) Sens COR Total Revenue in 2022 (in millions) Total R&D in 2022 (in millions) Total SG&A in 2022 (in millions) Cost of Capital (Discount Rate) Long run growth rate All dollar figures are in millions 81462 3075 3946 12% 3% 2022 2023 40% 25% 30% 76.0% 47.0% 10.0% 5.0% 90.0% 76.0% 2023 2024 35% 20% 27% 75.0% 19.0% 8.0% 4.8% 85.0% 78.0% 2024 2025 30% 18% 25% 74.0% 21.0% 7.0% 4.5% 80.0% 79.0% 2025 2026 28% 15% 20% 74.0% 18.0% 5.0% 4.0% 75.0% 80.0% 2026 2027 25% 11% 15% 74.0% 16.0% 4.0% 3.8% 70.0% 82.0% 2027 2028 17% 8% 13% 74.0% 14.0% 3.0% 3.5% 70.0% 85.0% 2028 2029 15% 5% 10% 74.0% 12.0% 2.0% 3.0% 70.0% 85.0% 2029 2030 13% 3% 8% 74.0% 10.0% 2.0% 3.0% 70.0% 85.0% 2030 2031 10% 3% 5% 74.0% 8.0% 2.0% 3.0% 70.0% 85.0% 2031 Next, perform some sensitivity analysis. Use the Upside and Downside scenarios to compute Upside and Downside stock prices. Using the base case, check the sensitivity of the valuation to the assumptions about Tesla's cost of revenue. The sheet assumes that Tesla will be able to stabilize gross margins at 24%. This would be fairly high for the automotive industry, where gross margins can be as low as 10%. Calculate Tesla's stock price if Cost of Revenue was 76%, 78%, 79%, 80%, and 82% in years 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027, and then 85% from 2028 onward. Using the base case, check the sensitivity of the valuation to the assumptions about Tesla's cost of R&D. The sheet assumes that eventually Tesla will be able to hold R&D growth to only 8% per year. As the space becomes more competitive, Tesla may have to keep R&D growth at 16% in order to keep its lead. Calculate Tesla's stock price if R&D levels out at 16% growth from 2027 onward. Tesla Valuation Model assumptions based on anaylst reports Upside YOY Revenue Growth Downside YOY Revenue Growth Base Case YOY Revenue Growth Total Cost of Revenue (% of Rev) R&D YOY Growth SG&A YOY Growth Depreciation (% of Rev) CapEx (% of Depr) Sens COR Total Revenue in 2022 (in millions) Total R&D in 2022 (in millions) Total SG&A in 2022 (in millions) Cost of Capital (Discount Rate) Long run growth rate All dollar figures are in millions 81462 3075 3946 12% 3% 2022 2023 40% 25% 30% 76.0% 47.0% 10.0% 5.0% 90.0% 76.0% 2023 2024 35% 20% 27% 75.0% 19.0% 8.0% 4.8% 85.0% 78.0% 2024 2025 30% 18% 25% 74.0% 21.0% 7.0% 4.5% 80.0% 79.0% 2025 2026 28% 15% 20% 74.0% 18.0% 5.0% 4.0% 75.0% 80.0% 2026 2027 25% 11% 15% 74.0% 16.0% 4.0% 3.8% 70.0% 82.0% 2027 2028 17% 8% 13% 74.0% 14.0% 3.0% 3.5% 70.0% 85.0% 2028 2029 15% 5% 10% 74.0% 12.0% 2.0% 3.0% 70.0% 85.0% 2029 2030 13% 3% 8% 74.0% 10.0% 2.0% 3.0% 70.0% 85.0% 2030 2031 10% 3% 5% 74.0% 8.0% 2.0% 3.0% 70.0% 85.0% 2031 Next, perform some sensitivity analysis. Use the Upside and Downside scenarios to compute Upside and Downside stock prices. Using the base case, check the sensitivity of the valuation to the assumptions about Tesla's cost of revenue. The sheet assumes that Tesla will be able to stabilize gross margins at 24%. This would be fairly high for the automotive industry, where gross margins can be as low as 10%. Calculate Tesla's stock price if Cost of Revenue was 76%, 78%, 79%, 80%, and 82% in years 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027, and then 85% from 2028 onward. Using the base case, check the sensitivity of the valuation to the assumptions about Tesla's cost of R&D. The sheet assumes that eventually Tesla will be able to hold R&D growth to only 8% per year. As the space becomes more competitive, Tesla may have to keep R&D growth at 16% in order to keep its lead. Calculate Tesla's stock price if R&D levels out at 16% growth from 2027 onward.
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To calculate the stock price in the Upside and Downside scenarios we need to apply the given revenue growth rates to estimate the future revenue of Tesla We will start with the base case assumptions p... View the full answer
Related Book For
College Accounting
ISBN: 978-1111528126
11th edition
Authors: Tracie Nobles, Cathy Scott, Douglas McQuaig, Patricia Bille
Posted Date:
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