Question: The attached Excel spreadsheet contains time-series data capturing the weekly average of crude oil imports of a small country in thousands of barrels per day.

The attached Excel spreadsheet contains time-series data capturing the weekly average of crude oil imports of a small country in thousands of barrels per day. Your task is to use this historical data to project the import into week 53 and beyond.

a)make a time-series plot showing the week-to-week variation in oil imports. Comment on the patterns you observe in the plot. (2 marks)

b)Use the following forecasting techniques to forecast the demand for week 53. (10 marks)

a.1-period moving average (nave forecast) b.3-period moving average c.3-period weighted moving average with 3-point weights = 0.3, 0.3, 0.4 (with 0.4 is given to the most recent period) d.Trend projection with linear regression

c)Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each of the forecasting techniques used in part b. Begin your error calculation starting from week 5. Which model has the best performance on the historical data? (13 marks)

d)Use the result of your Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average and Trend Projection methods from part (b) to develop a combination forecast. Weigh these three methods equally to develop this combination forecast. The logic would be to improve the overall forecast by combining the benefits of each technique. Calculate MAD, MSE and MAPE for this model and compare with the performance of individual models. Begin your error calculation from week 1. (5 marks)

Quarter 2, 2021	Quarter 3, 2021	Quarter 4, 2021	Quarter 1, 2022	Quarter 2, 2022
Time Period	Data	Time Period	Data	Time Period	Data	Time Period	Data	Time Period	Data
2-Apr-21	1160	2-Jul-21	1116	1-Oct-21	1073	31-Dec-21	994	1-Apr-22
9-Apr-21	779	9-Jul-21	1328	8-Oct-21	857	7-Jan-22	1307	8-Apr-22
16-Apr-21	1134	16-Jul-21	1183	15-Oct-21	1197	14-Jan-22	997	15-Apr-22
23-Apr-21	1275	23-Jul-21	1219	22-Oct-21	718	21-Jan-22	1082	22-Apr-22
30-Apr-21	1355	30-Jul-21	1132	29-Oct-21	817	28-Jan-22	887	29-Apr-22
7-May-21	1513	6-Aug-21	1094	5-Nov-21	946	4-Feb-22	1067
14-May-21	1394	13-Aug-21	1040	12-Nov-21	725	11-Feb-22	890
21-May-21	1097	20-Aug-21	1053	19-Nov-21	748	18-Feb-22	865
28-May-21	1206	27-Aug-21	1232	26-Nov-21	1031	25-Feb-22	858
4-Jun-21	1264	3-Sep-21	1073	3-Dec-21	1061	4-Mar-22	814
11-Jun-21	1153	10-Sep-21	1329	10-Dec-21	1074	11-Mar-22	871
18-Jun-21	1424	17-Sep-21	1096	17-Dec-21	941	18-Mar-22	1255
25-Jun-21	1274	24-Sep-21	1125	24-Dec-21	994	25-Mar-22	980

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