1. The data in the table below are for retail sales in book stores by quarter. (c3p13)

   U.S. Retail Book Sales (in Millions of Dollars, NSA)

   Date	Sales
   Mar-02	1,866
   Jun-02	1,666
   Sep-02	2,351
   Dec-02	2,455
   Mar-03	2,169
   Jun-03	1,815
   Sep-03	2,498
   Dec-03	2,637
   Mar-04	2,326
   Jun-04	2,020
   Sep-04	2,858
   Dec-04	2,915
   Mar-05	2,725
   Jun-05	2,283
   Sep-05	3,134
   Dec-05	3,066
   Mar-06	2,876
   Jun-06	2,445
   Sep-06	3,190
   Dec-06	3,407
   Mar-07	3,197
   Jun-07	2,575
   Sep-07	3,290
   Dec-07	3,693
   Mar-08	3,273
   Jun-08	2,713
   Sep-08	3,514
   Dec-08	3,794
   Mar-09	3,480
   Jun-09	2,943
   Sep-09	3,654
   Dec-09	4,108
   Mar-10	3,628
   Jun-10	3,203
   Sep-10	4,051
   Dec-10	4,010
   Mar-11	3,719
   Jun-11	3,084
   Sep-11	4,234
   Dec-11	4,073
   Mar-12	3,983
   Jun-12	3,132
   Sep-12	4,328
   Dec-12	4,007
   Mar-13	3,969
   Jun-13	3,257
   Sep-13	4,824
   Dec-13	4,129
   Mar-14	4,298
   Jun-14	3,312
   Sep-14	4,811
   Dec-14	4,336
   Mar-15	4,261
   Jun-15	3,278
   Sep-15	4,991
   Dec-15	4,447

   1. Plot these data and examine the plot. Does this view of the data suggest a particular smoothing model? Do the data appear to be seasonal? Explain.

   2. Use an exponential smoothing method to forecast the next four quarters. Plot the actual and forecast values.

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