The data shows the average monthly exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro for a certain year. It shows that $1$ euro was equivalent to $1\mathrm{.}289$ US dollars for January $2016.$

Month Exchange Rate Month Exchange Rate

January $1\mathrm{.}289$ July $1\mathrm{.}230$

February $1\mathrm{.}324$ August $1\mathrm{.}240$

March $1\mathrm{.}321$ September $1\mathrm{.}287$

April $2\mathrm{.}317$ October $1\mathrm{.}298$

May $1\mathrm{.}280$ November $1\mathrm{.}283$

June $1\mathrm{.}254$ December $1\mathrm{.}311$

Answer the following. Present the tables with the corresponding computed values.

$1.$ Use the na$$ve forecasting technique to obtain the forecasted value for January $2017.$

$2.$ Use the $3-$month moving average technique to find the forecasted value for January $2017.$

$3.$ Forecast the exchange rate for January $2017$ using the weighted $3-$month moving average, using the weights $0\mathrm{.}50,0\mathrm{.}30,$ and $0\mathrm{.}20.$

$4.$ Using the MSE, determine which of the $3$ methods provided the most accurate forecast.