The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that information observable to the market prior to week t should not help to predict the return during week t. If we use only past information on Y, the EMH is stated as E(YY-1 Ye-2.) = E(Y) (1) If (1) is false, then we could use information on past weekly returns to predict the current return. The EMH presumes that such investment opportunities will be noticed and will disappear almost instantaneously. a. [5 pts] Suppose that you set an AR(1) model as an alternative model to (1). How would you state the null hypothesis to say that the EMH holds?  

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If setting up an AR1 model as an alternative to the EMH stated in equation 1 the null h... View the full answer