The Emergency room manager would like to use exponential smoothing to forecast demand of MRI's at the facility. However, she is not sure whether to use a high or low value of . To make her decision, she would like to compare the forecast accuracy of a high and low on historical data. She has decided to use an =0.8 for the high value and =0.2 for the low value. The following are historical data

1) Assuming the first month forecast was 320 (see above table), find your next four months forecasts using exponential smoothing with low and high values separately. 2) Using your forecasts above from those two values separately, find MADs and tracking signals for every month. 3) Based on your calculations of MADs and tracking signals in 2), answer this question: which value results in more accurate forecasts? and explain why

\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|} \hline Month & Demand(Numberofpatients) & Forecast(=0.2) & Forecast(=0.8) \\ \hline 1 & 350 & 320 & 320 \\ \hline 2 & 320 & & \\ \hline 3 & 370 & & \\ \hline 4 & 365 & & \\ \hline 5 & 340 & & \\ \hline \end{tabular}