The Excel file Forecasting Practice Questions Sheet Q$1$ provides information on the daily demand for a product for $365$ days. Use this data to answer the following questions.

Exponential Smoothing Model Mean Absolute Percent Error

$\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2$

$\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}3$

$\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}5$

For all models, assume that the forecast for the first time$-$period is the same as the actual demand.

Based on your analysis above, which is the model that should be used for forecasting this data. Explain why you chose that model.

Using your chosen model, provide a forecast for time$-$period $366.$