The first five periods of demand data from Solved Problem $3$ are shown in the following

table. Using a smoothing coefficient, $=0\mathrm{.}3)$ compute simple exponentially smoothed

forecasts for periods $-4$ through $-1.$ Initialize the procedure with a forecast value for

period $-5$ of $38.$

$243$

$378$ and calculate the tracking signal after period $-1.$

:$\text{'}37$

Pd$.$O M M $0(t=1$

$540$