The following spreadsheet provides the data regarding a 3rd round of financing for startup Newco at the end of the 3rd year, after 2 previous rounds by different investors:

Required investment $ 20.00M

Exit valuation $300.00M

Cost of venture capital 15%

Exit horizon 3 years

Estimated probability of successful exit 50%

Shares owned by previous investors 24 million

Shares to be owned by new investor 12 million

Committed capital in Newco $100M

Management fee 2% for 10 years

Carry % (basis investment capital) 20%

Expected GVM 2.5

Assumed retention 67%

What should be the investment recommendation based on the information? What happens to the recommendation if the estimated probability of successful exit changes to 40% or 60%?