The following table shows the number of patients showing up in emergency department for three weeks...

 

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The following table shows the number of patients showing up in emergency department for three weeks Week Day 1 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ER visits 265 260 255 261 264 220 255 Week 2 Day Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ER visits 290 250 222 230 282 211 215 Week Day ER visits 3 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 280 261 230 240 271 223 228 a. Compare the quality of forecasting using moving average with n=3, n=5, n=7 (start your forecast on the first day of the second week) using both MAD and MSE. Which one is the best? b. Compare forecasting with exponential smoothing with a = 0.1 and a = 0.3 for the second and third week (assuming the forecast for the last day of the first week was 230) c. Use the data on the first three weeks to forecast the visits in the fourth week using seasonal index for each day of the week assume that the forecast for the entire fourth week is 255. Discuss the differences between the different approaches. Which one do you think is most suitable here? d. The following table shows the number of patients showing up in emergency department for three weeks Week Day 1 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ER visits 265 260 255 261 264 220 255 Week 2 Day Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ER visits 290 250 222 230 282 211 215 Week Day ER visits 3 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 280 261 230 240 271 223 228 a. Compare the quality of forecasting using moving average with n=3, n=5, n=7 (start your forecast on the first day of the second week) using both MAD and MSE. Which one is the best? b. Compare forecasting with exponential smoothing with a = 0.1 and a = 0.3 for the second and third week (assuming the forecast for the last day of the first week was 230) c. Use the data on the first three weeks to forecast the visits in the fourth week using seasonal index for each day of the week assume that the forecast for the entire fourth week is 255. Discuss the differences between the different approaches. Which one do you think is most suitable here? d.

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

SOLUTION a To compare the quality of forecasting using moving average with n3 n5 n7 we need to calculate the MAD and MSE for each forecast We start the forecast on the first day of the second week For ... View the full answer