There are 3 categories of investors: uninformed, informed, and very informed. The very informed know the stock
Question:
There are 3 categories of investors: uninformed, informed, and very informed. The very informed know the stock price is either 90 or 110. The informed know that the expected stock price is either 95 or 105. The probabilities of uninformed, informed, and very informed trading depend on the dealer's bid-ask spread as follows:
Probability of trading as a function of the bid-ask spread
Very informed Informed Uninformed
0% 0% 100% bid-ask spread 6
20% 30% 50% 6 < bid-ask spread 10
100% 0% 0% 10 < bid-ask spread 20
No trading No trading No trading 20 < bid-ask spread
The dealer is risk neutral and sets a bid-ask spread centred at 100 to maximize the expected profit of the next trade.
What is the dealer's optimal bid-ask spread and corresponding expected profit? You must clearly justify your answer to receive full credit. In particular, if you are not explicitly testing every possible bid-ask spread, you must explain why.