Question: (This is a classic problem on which doctors are often said to do poorly, suggesting many mis-interpreted test results; however to be fair to them
(This is a classic problem on which doctors are often said to do poorly, suggesting many mis-interpreted test results; however to be fair to them I think there may be semantic issues in that many understand a different meaning of the term 'false positive'). A certain test for a genetic disorder has a false positive rate of 2%, meaning that in cases where the condition is absent, the test will falsely indicate that it is present 2% of the time. If an individual does have the disorder, the test correctly identifies this 99% of the time. The disorder occurs in 1 of every 1000 people. If someone gets a positive result, what is the probability that the individual has the disorder?
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