This is an assignment on time series analysis and forecasting.

1. Consider the following time series data. (Use Excel for this problem. Copy paste Excel Tables into your report for answering questions). Month Value 1 12 2 19 3 24 4 13 5 20 6 23 7 15 8 21 9 23 10 18 a) Use the Nave Method of forecasting. What is the forecast for month 11? b) Use the Forecasting Method that uses the average of all the data available until that period as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 11? c) Which method appears to provide the better forecast? Use different Measures of Forecast Accuracy in making this determination. 2. Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in Table 17.1 of the Text Book (12th Edition). (Use Excel for this problem. Copy paste Excel Tables into your report for answering questions). a) Compute two- week, three-week, and four- week moving average forecasts for the time series data. b) Compute Measures of Forecast Accuracy like MAE, MSE, and MAPE. c) Which method of forecasting of the three (two, three, or four- week moving average models) would you prefer to use for future forecasting purposes? Justify your answer. 3. For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are: 99, 104, 101, 98, 100, 104, 101, 102, 98, 100, 101, and 102. a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b) Compare the three- month moving average approach and exponential smoothing approach for = .3. Which method provides a better forecasting model? c) What is the forecast for next month in each case? 4. Consider the following time series. t Yt a) b) c) d) e) 1 2 3 120 110 100 4 96 5 94 6 92 7 88 8 84 9 82 10 78 Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Develop the linear trend equation. What are the values for slope and intercept? What is the forecast for t = 11? Is the linear trend statistically significant? Use = .05 What is the Goodness of fit measure (strength of this linear trend) is? 2 \f