This question concerns CPM$/$PERT analysis for a 'normalised' project. The activities $($in weeks$)$ are detailed in Table $1\mathrm{.}1.$

Index Activity

Immediately Preceding Activity

Mean Time $($weeks$)$

Optimistic Estimate

Pessimistic Estimate

Most Likely

Variance A Activity$-1-132$ B Activity$-2$ A $283\mathrm{.}5$ C Activity$-3$ A $6189$ D Activity$-4$ B $4105\mathrm{.}5$ E Activity$-5$ D $154\mathrm{.}5$ F Activity$-6$ D $4104$ G Activity$-7$ D $5116\mathrm{.}5$ H Activity$-8$ B $5178$ I Activity$-9$ C$,$E $397\mathrm{.}5$ J Activity$-10$ G $399$ K Activity$-11$ F$,$ I, J $444$ L Activity$-12$ K $175\mathrm{.}5$ M Activity$-13$ H$,$ G $132$ N Activity$-14$ M $595\mathrm{.}5$

Table $1\mathrm{.}1$

Question $1$

This question concerns CPM$/$PERT analysis for a 'normalised' project. The activities $($in

weeks$)$are detailed in Table $1\mathrm{.}1.$

Table $1\mathrm{.}1$

a$)$Draw a CP Network in 'Activity on node $($AON$)\text{'}$format$.$

b$)$Calculate 'Mean Time' and 'Variance' for each activity

c$)$Using 'mean' durations to calculate 'earliest start', 'earliest finish', 'latest start',

'latest finish' and slack for each activity $($show on your network in a $2$xx$2$grid$).$

d$)$Identify the 'critical path' on your network and the next nearest 'critical path'.

e$)$What is the probability this project will be completed in $47$weeks $($Z tables are

attached.

f$)$Your manager has indicated that the project should be completed in $43$weeks and has

asked you to calculate the likelihood of the project being completed in this time; what

is the likelihood of this time being met?

g$)$Activity time estimation is difficult for projects with new technology, comment on

this difficulty and identify processes that could improve estimation.