Three week moving average, adaptive $,$exponentially smoothed forecast demand

model

The first four periods of demand data are shown in the following table $.$Let the

smoothing coefficient, alpha, equal $0\mathrm{.}2.$Compute the exponentially smoothed

forecasts for periods one through four $.$Initialize the procedure with a forecast

value for period one of $37.$

Period Aggregate Demand Forecast demand

$0$

$1$

$2$

$3$

$4$

$38$

$42$

$40$

$36$

$37$

Determine the Running Sum of Forecast Errors $($RSFE$),$ the Mean Absolute

Deviation, MADt$-1,$and the Tracking Signal$($TS$)$ at the end of each period.

Let the initial MADt$-1$ for period O be equal to $2.$