Through a routine water quality analysis, it is found that somebody has illegally dumped paint in

the river. This paint has been found downstream of an area with 50 houses. This means that any

of these 50 houses could have polluted the water. Through analyzing the houses, a consultant has

determined that there is an 90% chance that the paint used by household A is the paint that is found

in the water. Does this mean that there is an 90% chance that household A is guilty of polluting

the stream? If yes, explain your reasoning. If not, calculate the chance that the household is guilty,

and explain your reasoning.