Time estimates
Task ID	Task	Predecessor(s)	Most Optimistic	Most Likely	Worst Case Time
A	Obtain a building permit from county		3	15	36
B	Dig foundation and pour footers	A	5	8	24
C	Dig well for water	A	5	8	12
D	Deliver framing and roofing materials	A	3	10	15
E	Frame walls	B,D	10	15	22
F	Install septic - sewer system	A	2	5	8
G	Rough plumbing - connect water and sewer	E,C, and F	5	9	25
H	Roof building	E	10	15	33
I	Paint exterior	E	10	12	32
J	Move in manufacturing equipment	I,H, and G	18	20	30

Question One: Provide an activity diagram, assuming the "Most Likely time value.

Question Two: What is the Critical Path for the above activity diagram?

Question Three: Provide a 1000 iteration monte-carlo simulation in Excel. We will use the PERT distribution for all of our randomly generated times. Please refer to the virtual office discussion. Provide the Excel file in your submission. Copy and paste a screen shot of your Excel file monte-carlo simulation in the Word submission document. You do not need to provide the complete simulation in the Word document just a screen shot of the first few rows of the model.

Question Four: Provide a histogram of expected total project completion time use 5 day increments. Copy and paste your histogram in your Word Document. Comment in one or two sentences regarding the results.

Question Five: Based upon your simulation results, what is the probability that the project will EXCEED the Critical Path provided in Question Two, above. In one or two sentences, provide a hypothesis of why your project may EXCEED the Critical Path.

Question Six: Reduce the "Worst Case Time" for all activities by 2 days and Increase the "Best Case Time" by 1 day for all activities. Provide a histogram of expected total project completion time use 5 day increments. Copy and paste your histogram in your Word Document. Comment in one or two sentences regarding the results.

Question Seven: The time wall framing can begin is dependent on tasks pour footers/foundation and deliver materials. Evaluate the dependency of these tasks upon beginning the wall framing. What would you change to insure that wall framing is no more than 10% dependent upon delivery of materials. Provide appropriate screen shots of the simulation results. There is no one correct answer to this question. Discuss the reasoning behind your approach (1-2 sentences)

Question Eight: Similar to Q7., the final task, move in equipment is dependent upon a number of tasks. As a good bit of our equipment requires water supply for cooling and drainage; we want to insure there is a very high chance that the project is NOT dependent upon rough plumbing. What would you change to insure that rough plumbing has less than a 2% chance of influencing move in equipment . Provide appropriate screen shots of the simulation results. There is no one correct answer to this question. Discuss the reasoning behind your approach (1-2 sentences).

Question Nine: We want to insure that the probability that the project is completed in less than 80 days is 90%. By reducing the variability in the tasks times, what would you change and how much to achieve this goal. Provide appropriate screen shots of the simulation results. There is no one correct answer to this question. Discuss the reasoning behind your approach (1-2 sentences).