Question: To assess the additional risk associated with developing the new technology, Mr. Harquest would like you to apply several risk assessment tools using Paccar's WACC


To assess the additional risk associated with developing the new technology, Mr. Harquest would like you to apply several risk assessment tools using Paccar's WACC (5.5%) as the required return. More specifically, he wants you to apply the following risk assessment tasks. First, Mr. Harquest would like you to determine the level of development costs that would make Paccar indifferent between buying and developing the new technology. Similarly, he wants to know what is the level of increased revenue in year one if we develop the technology that would make Paccar indifferent between buying and developing the new technology Additionally, he would also like you apply twoway sensitivity analysis to the NPV of developing the new technology based on the expected increase in year 1 revenue and growth in increased revenue in years 2 and 3. Furthermore, Mr. Harquest would also like you to apply scenario analysis by estimating all four performance measures for the develop alternative assuming it takes 21 months to develop the technology, the cost of developing the new technology will be 60% greater than originally expected, and the increase in revenue in year 1 is 30% lower than originally expected (keep the growth rate the same)1. He suggests that it is reasonable to assume that the probability of this scenario occurring is 20% while the probability of our original expectations occurring is 80%. Finally, Mr. Harquest would like you apply Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis (focusing only on our key performance measure: NPV) separately for both alternatives (buy and develop) given the expected distribution of the inputs provided in exhibit 1
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