Topic: Decision Analysis Question 2: (15 marks) Mickey Lawson is considering investing some money that he inherited. The following payoff table gives the prots (in $10005) that would be realized during the next year for each of three investment alternatives: I State of nature I Good Economy Poor Economy Stock Market | 855 .250 Bond l 365 135 GIC | 240 240 Without any information, Mickey estimates that the probability of Good Economy will be 0.65. a) b) Draw a simple decision tree for this problem. What is the best alternative based on maximum Expected Monetary Value (EMV) criterion? [3] Mickey is also considering hiring a market consultant at a cost of $20,000 to get additional information on the lture economy. In the past, if the economy was good, the consultant predicted positive information 80% of the times. If the economy was poor, the consultant predicted negative information 75% of the times. Calculate the following posterior probabilities (keep 3 decimal places): [3] P(Good Economy /Positive Information) P(Gooa' Economy/Negative Infomation) Draw a complex decision tree and answer the following questions: [5] Should Mickey hire the market consultant? Why? 0 {fine answer is Yes and the consultant gives positive information, then which investment alternative should Mickey invest? Why? . If the answer is Yes and the consultant gives negative information, then which investment alternative should Mickey invest? Why? . If the answer is No, then which investment alternative should Mickey invest