Two analysts are in heated argument about the the expected return of a stock and the probability of a global pandemic. They agree that there 4 possible states of the world, and that the return on the stock in each state is given as: Boom- expected return 30% Normal- expected return 10% Bust- expected return -10% Pandemic- expected return -60% They also agree that a "boom" will happen with probability = 20% and that "normal" will happen 60% of the time., Their disagreement is over the relative probabilities of "bust" and "pandemic". Finally someone comes in and yells "THE EXPECTED RETURN ON THE STOCK IS 9.9995%." and they agree that its settled. What is the probability of the "pandemic" state?