Uncertainty Problem - Operation Management

B D E F G L M N P R 1-34 2-41.6 3-4-5 3-5-7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 B 9 10 11 12 t. + 4tm + (tp - t.)2 te = -02 act = 6 36 (expected duration of activities on the pati [(variances of activity durations on path)] 5-7-9 $ Path mean = 4-6-8 2-3.6 1-46 Opath = What is the probability that the project can be Completed a thin al weeks of its start? 14 15 16 17 19 19 20 21 Z= Specified length of time - Expected path duration Standard deviation of path duration what is the probability that the project can be completed within 21 weeks of its start? to tm Total Mean Var Total Var Std 1 2 2 3 3 5 23 24 Tasks 25 a 26 L 27 C 29 d 29 e e 301 30 31 g 32 h h 33 i 34 35 36 37 tp 3 4 3 3 4 4 5 7 3 1 6 4 moan 4 6 5 5 7 9 The Rubric Correct total mean Correct total Std Correct probability for the first path Correct probability for the second path Correct total Probability 2 8 4 3 8 G