Understanding Probabilities through Focused Deterrence Strategies

Envision you are a police chief of a large city and are interested in seeing if the focused deterrence strategies you have employed in your city are working to reduce crime. Crime data is finally in and is displayed in the table below.

	Crime Was Reduced	Crime Was Not Reduced	TOTAL
Neighborhood Received Focused Deterrence	75	15	90
Neighborhood Did Not Receive Focused Deterrence	5	25	30
TOTAL	80	40	120

• Discuss which two probabilities would you like to see in order to understand if focused deterrence worked in your city. Why are those two probabilities important to you to understand if focused deterrence is working
• Next, calculate those two probabilities and report what you found (you do not need to show your work, but you do need to describe the probability, such as the probability of A and B, and show your result).
• Finally, given that you now have calculated those probabilities, what do you conclude about the effectiveness (i.e., did it appear to work) of focused deterrence in your city?
• Lastly, is there anything else you would like to know about your focused deterrence program to determine effectiveness?