Question: Upon successfully bidding for the project ( and obtaining the conditions specified in Part A ) , your client approaches you with an alternative arrangement.

Upon successfully bidding for the project (and obtaining the conditions specified in Part A), your client approaches you with an alternative arrangement. Instead of a lump-sum turnkey contract, they are willing to convert the project to a regular Engineering and Construction contract, where you bill the client for your cost (no profit).
To align incentives, the client proposes that to ensure your profitability, they give you a 10% stake in the company that controls the project (called ManCo), a company that basically oversees construction, manages the facility afterwards and distributes the profits from the project to its owners. You will be awarded this stake during year 5(at the end of the project). ManCo's CFO sees the current value (as of today) of the company at $600 million, so your 10% stake of that as of today would be worth $60 million. Your auditors have checked this estimate and consider it a fair value. But your auditors also warn you that there is considerable risk in this value over the next 5 years at the end of the project, ManCo may be worth as little at $20 million or as much as $1.2 billion dollars. Cost variations are a key reason for this risk. They expect that the probability distribution of the value of your stake in ManCo in year 5 is a uniform one (i.e. equal probabilities) for each of the 60 possible values from $2 million, $4 million, $6 million, ... to $120 million.
After some negotiations, your CEO is able to obtain a guarantee from ManCo that you can convert this 10% stake into a $40 million lump-sum payout, also paid at the end of the project. For simplicity, assume that you would find out very quickly after signing the contract (i.e. within the first year) what the final value of your stake is, so you could immediately switch to the $40M fixed amount option if desired.
Using this information, include the cash flow, ePV calculation, Expected Value (EV), and Correct NPV.

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