use an example of Ocelots ( Leopardus pardalis ), an endangered species occurring in the United States in southern Texas and southern Arizona. perform a form of sensitivity (or elasticity) analysis known as 'manual perturbation analysis' to get a better understanding of how structured population models might be used by managers to target particular population categories (e.g., adult female, subadult male) that might require the special attention of management to achieve the desired goal, whether it be increase or decrease of the population.

1. Of the three ocelot reintroduction scenarios, which one resulted in the largest population growth after 10 years (observed mean annual lambda)? Describe the patterns you observed in population growth for each example.
2. Of the two environmental stochasticity scenarios, which one resulted in the largest population growth after 10 years (observed mean annual lambda)? Describe your observation.
3. Think about how management activities, whether of threatened species or harvested species, might create patterns similar to those demonstrated in the above scenarios. How do the assumptions of the structured population model influence how a manager might use these models?
4. Based on your manual perturbation analysis, what management recommendation (e.g., increase litter size, release kits, increase adult survival, etc) can you make for ocelots in order to have management have the most impact on population growth, i.e., what is the target population group that you would focus management on? Provide a specific management action that might create the desired change in demographic parameter
5. Does the finding from your manual perturbation analysis match your interpretation of the provided elasticity matrix? Does it fit with the general pattern of elasticity expected? Provide some explanation on why or why not?

Ocelot Reintroduction Strategies Step 1. Enter values only in the yellow cells below. You are tasked with releasing 40 ocelots as part of a reintroduction. The graphs show the population growth resulting from this release, the green cells show the average growth rate for each strategy. Each scenario must have 40 ocelots, but you can alter the age structure of each release, for example, all 40 could be kits. I have provided you with one starting scenario. Try several others using the 3 columns of yellow cells (make sure they add to 40 as shown in scenario 1). Examine the graphs and make inferences about the best reintroduction strategy, and how the age structure influences the pattern of observed population growth. Note that the graphs vary in scale of y-axis. Survival Rates From Age Scenario 1 Age 0 to Age 1 0.68 0 1 2 3+ Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Age 1 to Age 2 0.87 To Age 0 0 0 0 0.4 Kits 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Age 2 to Age 3 0.78 1 0.68 0 0 0 Age 1 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Age 3+ 0.87 2 0 0.87 0 0 Age 2 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3+ 0 0 0.78 0.87 Age 3+ 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 Reproductive Rate Total 40 40 41 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 Per capita for 3+ 0.4 Scenario 2 Kits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Age 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reintroduction Strategies Age 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #1 #2 #3 Age 3+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 # of Kits 8 0 0 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 # of 1 year-olds 5 0 0 Scenario 3 # of 2 year-olds 5 0 0 Kits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 # of Adults (3+) 22 0 0 Age 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Released 40 0 0 Age 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Age 3+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Average Annual 1.007 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Ocelots based on Release Strategy 109876543210 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Time Population Size Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 1 109876543210 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time # of Animals in Age Kits Age 1 Age 2 Adults Strategy 2 109876543210 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Time # of Animals in Age Kits Age 1 Age 2 Adults Strategy 3 109876543210 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Time # of Animals in Age Kits Age 1 Age 2 Adults

Impact of Stochasticity Step 2. Enter values for the percentage of variation (see note) in yellow. Higher values mean more variation, or stochasticity in the survival or reproductive rates. Use the graph to interpret the impact of variation in these rates on population growth compared to the non- stochastic scenario. Pressing F9 or entering a value will run a new simulation. % Stochasticity in Rate Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Survival Rate 0 0 Reproductive Rate 0 0 Survival Rates Average Age 0 to Age 1 0.68 Static 1.037 Age 1 to Age 2 0.87 Stochastic 1 1.037 Age 2 to Age 3 0.78 Stochastic 2 1.037 Age 3+ 0.87 Reproductive Rate Per capita for 3+ 0.4 Time Kits Age 1 Age 2 Adults Total Kits Age 1 Age 2 Adults Total Kits Age 1 Age 2 Adults Total 0 21 14 11 54 100 1.040 21 14 11 54 100 1.040 21 14 11 54 100 1.040 1 22 14 12 56 104 1.029 22 14 12 56 104 1.029 22 14 12 56 104 1.029 2 22 15 12 58 107 1.037 22 15 12 58 107 1.037 22 15 12 58 107 1.037 3 23 15 13 60 111 1.036 23 15 13 60 111 1.036 23 15 13 60 111 1.036 4 24 16 13 62 115 1.035 24 16 13 62 115 1.035 24 16 13 62 115 1.035 5 25 16 14 64 119 1.042 25 16 14 64 119 1.042 25 16 14 64 119 1.042 6 26 17 14 67 124 1.040 26 17 14 67 124 1.040 26 17 14 67 124 1.040 7 27 18 15 69 129 1.039 27 18 15 69 129 1.039 27 18 15 69 129 1.039 8 28 18 16 72 134 1.037 28 18 16 72 134 1.037 28 18 16 72 134 1.037 9 29 19 16 75 139 1.043 29 19 16 75 139 1.043 29 19 16 75 139 1.043 10 30 20 17 78 145 1.028 30 20 17 78 145 1.028 30 20 17 78 145 1.028 11 31 20 17 81 149 1.034 31 20 17 81 149 1.034 31 20 17 81 149 1.034 12 32 21 17 84 154 1.039 32 21 17 84 154 1.039 32 21 17 84 154 1.039 13 34 22 18 86 160 1.031 34 22 18 86 160 1.031 34 22 18 86 160 1.031 14 34 23 19 89 165 1.036 34 23 19 89 165 1.036 34 23 19 89 165 1.036 15 36 23 20 92 171 1.035 36 23 20 92 171 1.035 36 23 20 92 171 1.035 16 37 24 20 96 177 1.034 37 24 20 96 177 1.034 37 24 20 96 177 1.034 17 38 25 21 99 183 1.044 38 25 21 99 183 1.044 38 25 21 99 183 1.044 18 40 26 22 103 191 1.037 40 26 22 103 191 1.037 40 26 22 103 191 1.037 19 41 27 23 107 198 1.035 41 27 23 107 198 1.035 41 27 23 107 198 1.035 20 43 28 23 111 205 0.000 43 28 23 111 205 0.000 43 28 23 111 205 0.000 Population Growth under Static and Two Stochastic Scenarios 20181614121086420 0 50 100 150 200 250 Time Population Size Static Stochastic #1 Stochastic #2

Manual Perturbation Analysis Step 3. Change the values in yellow, one at a time, to look at the influence of that rate on overall population growth. Reset any changed values to value in Basic Matrix before changing another value. Observe values in green cells, and changes in graph, to evaluate influence of change in demographic parameter on resulting growth. Basic Ocelot Matrix Perturbed Ocelot Matrix From Age From Age 0 1 2 3+ 0 1 2 3+ To Age 0 0 0 0 0.4 To Age 0 0 0 0 0.4 1 0.68 0 0 0 1 0.68 0 0 0 2 0 0.87 0 0 2 0 0.87 0 0 3+ 0 0 0.78 0.87 3+ 0 0 0.78 0.87 Basic Matrix Perturbed Matrix Time # Kits # 1 year- olds # 2 year- olds # Adults Total Ocelots observed # Kits # 1 year- olds # 2 year- olds # Adults Total Ocelots observed 0 21 14 11 54 100 1.020 21 14 11 54 100 1.020 1 21 14 12 55 102 1.029 21 14 12 55 102 1.029 2 22 14 12 57 105 1.010 22 14 12 57 105 1.010 3 22 14 12 58 106 1.019 22 14 12 58 106 1.019 4 23 14 12 59 108 1.019 23 14 12 59 108 1.019 5 23 15 12 60 110 1.027 23 15 12 60 110 1.027 6 24 15 13 61 113 1.027 24 15 13 61 113 1.027 7 24 16 13 63 116 1.017 24 16 13 63 116 1.017 Average Basic 1.022 8 25 16 13 64 118 1.017 25 16 13 64 118 1.017 Average Perturbed 1.022 9 25 17 13 65 120 1.025 25 17 13 65 120 1.025 Difference in population size at time 20 0 10 26 17 14 66 123 1.016 26 17 14 66 123 1.016 11 26 17 14 68 125 1.024 26 17 14 68 125 1.024 12 27 17 14 70 128 1.023 27 17 14 70 128 1.023 13 28 18 14 71 131 1.023 28 18 14 71 131 1.023 14 28 19 15 72 134 1.022 28 19 15 72 134 1.022 15 28 19 16 74 137 1.022 28 19 16 74 137 1.022 16 29 19 16 76 140 1.021 29 19 16 76 140 1.021 17 30 19 16 78 143 1.028 30 19 16 78 143 1.028 18 31 20 16 80 147 1.034 31 20 16 80 147 1.034 19 32 21 17 82 152 1.020 32 21 17 82 152 1.020 20 32 21 18 84 155 32 21 18 84 155 Population Size under Basic and Perturbed Values 20181614121086420 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Time Total Population Size Basic Perturbed