Use Exponential smoothing forecasts with alpha of 0.1, 0.2, ..., 0.9 to predict October 2023 demand. Identify
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Question:
Use Exponential smoothing forecasts with alpha of 0.1, 0.2, ..., 0.9 to predict October 2023 demand. Identify the value of alpha that results in the lowest MAD.
What is the forecast, and seasonal indices for October, November and December 2023?
Alpha = | 0.10 | ||||||||
MAD = | 10.07 | ||||||||
Month | Year | Period | Price | AIP | Diff | Adv | Demand | Exp. Forecast | Abs. Dev. |
January | 2021 | 1 | 7.85 | 7.81 | -0.04 | 9.52 | 29.75 | 29.75 | 0 |
February | 2021 | 2 | 7.69 | 7.99 | 0.30 | 9.10 | 29.48 | 29.75 | 0.27 |
March | 2021 | 3 | 7.70 | 7.94 | 0.24 | 8.37 | 28.04 | 29.777 | 1.737 |
April | 2021 | 4 | 7.68 | 7.86 | 0.18 | 8.73 | 27.16 | 29.9507 | 2.7907 |
May | 2021 | 5 | 8.65 | 7.99 | -0.66 | 8.37 | 23.40 | 30.22977 | 6.82977 |
June | 2021 | 6 | 8.54 | 7.73 | -0.81 | 7.38 | 21.67 | 30.912747 | 9.242747 |
July | 2021 | 7 | 8.48 | 8.22 | -0.26 | 6.94 | 20.84 | 31.8370217 | 10.9970217 |
August | 2021 | 8 | 8.61 | 8.36 | -0.25 | 8.37 | 23.11 | 32.93672387 | 9.82672387 |
September | 2021 | 9 | 8.09 | 8.23 | 0.14 | 8.23 | 26.00 | 33.91939626 | 7.919396257 |
October | 2021 | 10 | 7.85 | 8.33 | 0.48 | 9.10 | 27.44 | 34.71133588 | 7.271335883 |
November | 2021 | 11 | 7.88 | 8.48 | 0.60 | 8.95 | 30.33 | 35.43846947 | 5.108469471 |
December | 2021 | 12 | 7.90 | 8.36 | 0.46 | 8.81 | 34.09 | 35.94931642 | 1.859316418 |
January | 2022 | 13 | 7.97 | 8.23 | 0.26 | 8.81 | 33.51 | 36.13524806 | 2.62524806 |
February | 2022 | 14 | 7.82 | 8.43 | 0.61 | 9.20 | 32.62 | 36.39777287 | 3.777772866 |
March | 2022 | 15 | 7.95 | 8.57 | 0.62 | 9.10 | 31.78 | 36.77555015 | 4.995550152 |
April | 2022 | 16 | 7.84 | 8.33 | 0.49 | 8.81 | 30.94 | 37.27510517 | 6.335105168 |
May | 2022 | 17 | 7.89 | 7.88 | -0.01 | 8.37 | 29.53 | 37.90861568 | 8.378615684 |
June | 2022 | 18 | 8.10 | 7.90 | -0.20 | 8.66 | 27.16 | 38.74647725 | 11.58647725 |
July | 2022 | 19 | 7.88 | 7.72 | -0.16 | 9.80 | 26.85 | 39.90512498 | 13.05512498 |
August | 2022 | 20 | 7.82 | 8.10 | 0.28 | 9.52 | 29.18 | 41.21063748 | 12.03063748 |
September | 2022 | 21 | 7.61 | 7.74 | 0.13 | 9.80 | 30.04 | 42.41370122 | 12.37370122 |
October | 2022 | 22 | 7.84 | 8.87 | 1.03 | 10.66 | 33.78 | 43.65107135 | 9.871071346 |
November | 2022 | 23 | 7.74 | 8.51 | 0.77 | 10.95 | 36.40 | 44.63817848 | 8.238178481 |
December | 2022 | 24 | 7.84 | 7.73 | -0.11 | 11.52 | 41.03 | 45.46199633 | 4.431996329 |
January | 2023 | 25 | 7.88 | 7.90 | 0.02 | 11.67 | 38.42 | 45.90519596 | 7.485195962 |
February | 2023 | 26 | 7.98 | 7.99 | 0.01 | 12.09 | 36.11 | 46.65371556 | 10.54371556 |
March | 2023 | 27 | 7.38 | 8.52 | 1.14 | 12.67 | 35.32 | 47.70808711 | 12.38808711 |
April | 2023 | 28 | 7.44 | 8.60 | 1.16 | 12.95 | 33.86 | 48.94689582 | 15.08689582 |
May | 2023 | 29 | 7.82 | 8.75 | 0.93 | 13.24 | 32.93 | 50.45558541 | 17.52558541 |
June | 2023 | 30 | 8.10 | 8.86 | 0.76 | 13.81 | 32.37 | 52.20814395 | 19.83814395 |
July | 2023 | 31 | 8.35 | 7.90 | -0.45 | 6.69 | 24.85 | 54.19195834 | 29.34195834 |
August | 2023 | 32 | 7.88 | 8.19 | 0.31 | 7.23 | 27.44 | 57.12615418 | 29.68615418 |
September | 2023 | 33 | 8.18 | 8.61 | 0.43 | 8.81 | 31.20 | 60.09476959 | 28.89476959 |
October | 2023 | 34 | 7.83 | 7.95 | 0.12 | 10.99 | 62.98424655 | ||
November | 2023 | 35 | 7.72 | 8.19 | 0.47 | 12.31 | 69.28267121 | ||
December | 2023 | 36 | 8.03 | 8.39 | 0.36 | 10.98 | 76.21093833 |
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ISBN: 9781292409863
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Authors: Lee Krajewski, Naresh Malhotra, Larry Ritzman
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