1. Use the data contained in Table 5.3 below to fill in the counts and probabilities in the following table. The output attribute is life insurance promotion.

	Magazine Promotion		Watch Promotion		Credit Insurance				Gender
Life Insurance Promotion	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No		Life Insurance Promotion	Yes	No
Yes	5	2	4	0	3	0		Male	2	4
No	0	3	1	5	2	5		Female	3	1
Ratio: Yes/Total	5/5	2/5	4/5	0/5				Ratio: Male/Total
Ratio: No/Total					2/5	5/5		Ratio: Female/Total	3/5	1/5

1. (3 Points) Use the completed table together with the nave Bayes classifier to determine the value of life insurance promotion for the following instance:

Magazine Promotion = Yes

Watch Promotion = Yes

Credit Card Insurance = No

Gender = Female

Life Insurance Promotion = ?

P(life insurance promotion = yes | E) =

(5/5)(4/5)(2/5)(3/5)(1/2)/P(E) = _______ / P(E)

P(life insurance promotion = no | E) =

(2/5)(0/5)(5/5)(1/5)(1/2)/P(E) = _______

The value for life insurance promotion is _______ (yes or no).

2. (3 Points) Repeat part a, but assume that the gender of the customer is unknown.

P(life insurance promotion = yes | E) = _______ / P(E)

P(life insurance promotion = no | E) = _______

The value for life insurance promotion is _______ (yes or no).

3. (3 Points) Repeat part a, but use Equation 5.15 (n+(k)(p)d+k) with k= 1 and p= 0.5 to determine the value of life insurance promotion.

P(life insurance promotion = yes | E) = _______ / P(E)

P(life insurance promotion = no | E) = _______ / P(E)

The value for life insurance promotion is _______ (yes or no).

TABLE 5.3: Data for the Bayes Classifier Magazine Promotion Yes Watch Promotion Gender Life Insurance Promotion No Yes Credit Card Insurance No Yes No Yes No No No Yes No Yes No Male Female Male Male Female Female Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Male Male No No No No Yes No No No Male Yes Yes Yes No Female TABLE 5.3: Data for the Bayes Classifier Magazine Promotion Yes Watch Promotion Gender Life Insurance Promotion No Yes Credit Card Insurance No Yes No Yes No No No Yes No Yes No Male Female Male Male Female Female Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Male Male No No No No Yes No No No Male Yes Yes Yes No Female