Use the description below for the next THREE questions:

A local restaurant has reconded the demand for bottled water in each of the last $15$ momths of

business. Use the recorded demand data below to develop three$-$period and four$-$period

moving$-$average forecasts for bottles of water.

Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining two decimal places is required

for all calculations.

Data in the above table can be found in the $\text{'}$MA$.$ Data' worksheet of the Homework $1$ Excel

file $+-.$

Question $7$

What is the forecast for period $16$ using the three$-$period moving average method? $($your

answer should be rounded off to the nearest whole number$).$

Less than or equal to $869$

Greater than $869$ but less than or equas to $879$

Greater than $879$ but less than or equal to $889$

Greater than $889$

Question $8$

What is the Mean Absolute Percent Error $($MAPE$)$ for the four$-$period moving average forecast

as at period $15?$

Less then or equal to $4\mathrm{.}50\%$

Greater than $4$ s$0$x but less than or equal to $4\mathrm{.}75\%$

Greater ttan $4\mathrm{.}75\%$ but less than or equal to $5\mathrm{.}00\%$

Greater than $5\mathrm{.}00$x

Question $9$

Question: Which forecast is the "best' $($the three$-$period or four$-$period moving average

method$)?$ Provide a justification for your answer in terms of measures of forecast accuracy

AND blas.

Analysis: You should compute and discuss measures of forecast accuracy $($l$.$e$.,$ MSE, MAD and

MAPE$)$ covered in the class and then indicate which of the measures to go with for the data.

You then should compute and discuss measures of blas $($i$.$e$,$ RSFE and$/$or Tracking signals$)$

covered in the class and then indicate which of the measures to go with for the data and why.

For the tracking signals they need to be determined for each period and then evaluated to see

If they are within or outside the standard $\frac{-}{+}4$ control limits for tracking signals. Finally, you

should make a conclusion about which forecast is 'best' based on your analysis.