Question: Use the following guidelines when creating forecasts: Evaluate potential methods that align with your data. Use the last 18 months as validation data with trend-based

Use the following guidelines when creating forecasts:

Evaluate potential methods that align with your data.

Use the last 18 months as validation data with trend-based models.

Optimize parameters in trend-based models.

When using simple exponential smoothing, set = 0.05 and round the actual data for the first month to the nearest hundred to seed your forecast column.

For moving averages, use 3 months

Use the following table of yearly forecasted demand for seasonality indices

NORTH AMERICA SOUTH AMERICA EUROPE PACIFIC
MOWERS 95000 4500 11000 3700
INDUSTRY MOWERS 87000 9000 255000 25000
INDUSTRY TRACTORS 156000 43000 81000 16000

DATA- INDUSTRY MOWER TOTAL SALES

Month NA SA Eur Pac World
Jan-17 60000 571 13091 1045 74662
Feb-17 77184 611 17679 1111 96585
Mar-17 77885 658 22759 1068 102369
Apr-17 86190 778 27966 1237 116171
May-17 96117 886 27895 1313 126210
Jun-17 97143 882 30566 1176 129768
Jul-17 84757 848 29444 1359 116409
Aug-17 79804 735 28364 1238 110141
Sep-17 64800 657 28393 1215 95065
Oct-17 59307 595 24444 1154 85500
Nov-17 52157 553 18000 1262 71972
Dec-17 45049 462 12453 1386 59349
Jan-18 58627 553 12778 1443 73401
Feb-18 76200 615 18214 1515 96545
Mar-18 82871 658 23889 1373 108791
Apr-18 84904 784 29455 1442 116584
May-18 93100 846 29464 1215 124625
Jun-18 93000 838 27414 1333 122585
Jul-18 83048 763 27368 1415 112594
Aug-18 74854 694 27321 1296 104164
Sep-18 60769 625 29444 1402 92241
Oct-18 55619 610 23774 1468 81470
Nov-18 48155 571 17308 1351 67386
Dec-18 42647 512 12941 1389 57489
Jan-19 57885 537 10962 1509 70892
Feb-19 77647 595 15273 1402 94917
Mar-19 81845 659 20556 1524 104583
Apr-19 86095 756 26786 1574 115211
May-19 91776 878 24828 1468 118949
Jun-19 100680 825 24737 1560 127801
Jul-19 86190 756 24828 1441 113216
Aug-19 71887 714 25179 1545 99325
Sep-19 60000 651 24545 1667 86863
Oct-19 55566 643 19286 1698 77193
Nov-19 50857 619 15273 1810 68558
Dec-19 42596 548 9107 1731 53982
Jan-20 58095 581 8571 1887 69135
Feb-20 75566 614 13158 1845 91182
Mar-20 80286 622 19655 1923 102486
Apr-20 85140 727 25179 1981 113027
May-20 90093 826 23103 1810 115832
Jun-20 95472 783 24286 1942 122482
Jul-20 87308 681 24737 1961 114686
Aug-20 74476 646 26607 2000 103729
Sep-20 61698 625 22982 2075 87381
Oct-20 57238 617 16897 2019 76771
Nov-20 50673 587 13750 2095 67105
Dec-20 51238 591 7818 2150 61797
Jan-21 59712 563 7547 1852 69673
Feb-21 77961 571 13889 1743 94165
Mar-21 83725 625 18302 1892 104544
Apr-21 90297 723 25192 2037 118250
May-21 91143 848 24706 1887 118583
Jun-21 99320 792 25306 1944 127363
Jul-21 93922 745 27083 2170 123919
Aug-21 73143 739 26042 2037 101961
Sep-21 66699 667 26304 2018 95688
Oct-21 56476 660 22558 2072 81766
Nov-21 51068 625 14773 2182 68648
Dec-21 46893 608 6977 2035 56510

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