Use the following to answer questions 5-6:

The plot below gives quarterly auto sales (in millions) for the first quarter of 2000 through the last quarter of 2001.

5. This two-year time series of sales exhibits:
   1. seasonal variation with an increasing trend.
   2. seasonal variation with a decreasing trend.
   3. cyclic pattern with an increasing trend.
   4. cyclic pattern with random fluctuation.
6. Using regression software, the estimated linear trend model is:

= 1.60 0.0482x

where x is the number of quarters elapsed since the beginning of the series. Using this trend-only model, the predicted sales for the first quarter of 2002 are million cars. Show your calculation below.

1. a.1.17
2. b.1.36
3. c.1.55
4. d.1.60