Question: Use the sales data below to generate forecasts for months 724 using a six-period and a three-period moving average. Use MAD to compare the forecasts.
Use the sales data below to generate forecasts for months 724 using a six-period and a three-period moving average. Use MAD to compare the forecasts. Which forecast is more stable? Which is more responsive and why?
| Month | Sales | Month | Sales | Month | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 124 | 9 | 145 | 17 | 158 |
| 2 | 126 | 10 | 150 | 18 | 149 |
| 3 | 131 | 11 | 144 | 19 | 175 |
| 4 | 134 | 12 | 154 | 20 | 170 |
| 5 | 133 | 13 | 160 | 21 | 176 |
| 6 | 135 | 14 | 155 | 22 | 158 |
| 7 | 138 | 15 | 162 | 23 | 178 |
| 8 | 143 | 16 | 160 | 24 | 175 |
(a)
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Generate forecasts for months 7-24 using a six-period and a three-period moving average. Use MAD to compare the forecasts
| Month | Sales | Forecast 6-month Mooving Average | Forecast 3-month Mooving Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 124 | - | - |
| 2 | 126 | - | - |
| 3 | 131 | - | - |
| 4 | 134 | - | enter forecast |
| 5 | 133 | - | enter forecast |
| 6 | 135 | - | enter forecast |
| 7 | 138 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 8 | 143 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 9 | 145 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 10 | 150 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 11 | 144 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 12 | 154 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 13 | 160 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 14 | 155 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 15 | 162 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 16 | 160 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 17 | 158 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 18 | 149 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 19 | 175 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 20 | 170 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 21 | 176 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 22 | 158 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 23 | 178 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| 24 | 175 | enter forecast | enter forecast |
| MAD: | enter the mean absolute deviation | enter the mean absolute deviation |
(For forecast: round your answers to 2 decimal places, e.g., 200.12.) (For MAD: round your answers to 2 decimal places, e.g., 200.12. Do not round your intermediate computations.)
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