Using a four$-$month moving average, determine the one$-$step$-$ahead forecasts for July through December.

Using a four$-$month moving average, determine the two$-$step$-$ahead forecast for July through December. $($Hint: The two$-$step$-$ahead forecast for July is based on the observed demands in February through May.$)$

Compute the MAD for the forecasts obtained in problems $1$ and $2.$ Which method gave better results? Based on forecasting theory, which method should have given better results?

Determine the following:

a$.$ The value of $\backslash$alpha consistent with N $=6$ in moving averages.

b$.$ The value of N consistent with $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}05.$

$5.$ Use the arithmetic average of the first six months of data as a baseline to initialize the exponential smoothing.

a$.$ Determine the one$-$step$-$ahead exponential smoothing forecasts for August through December, assuming $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}20.$

b$.$ Compare the accuracy of the forecasts obtained in part $($a$)$ with the one$-$step$-$ahead six$-$month moving$-$average forecasts.

c$.$ Comment on the reasons for the result you obtained in part $($b$)$