Using Excel, complete the following analysis:

$1.$ Compute MAPE for each of the following forecasting methods by generating forecasts for Days $4$ through $15$:

$1.3-$period Weighted Moving Average with weights $\backslash (\backslash$mathbf$\{0.2,0.3,0.5\}\backslash )($least recent to most recent$)(5$ points$)$

$2.$ Exponential Smoothing with $\backslash (\backslash$mathrm$\{$a$\}=0\mathrm{.}70\backslash )(5$ points$)$

$3.$ Exponential Smoothing with the best a value $(5$ points$)$

HINT: Use SOLVER to find the best a value.

NOTE: MAPE is the mean average percentage error and is calculated by taking the average of percent errors, which is calculated by dividing the absolute value of forecast error $($ error$|))$ by the actual price in each period.

NOTE: For Exponential Smoothing, start the process from Day $4.$ Assume Forecast for Day $4=$ Actual for Day $4.$

$2.$ Which of the above methods is the most accurate based on MAPE? Use the most accurate method that you found above to forecast for Day $16.(5$ points$)\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{|$c$|$c$|\}$

$\backslash$hline Day & $\backslash$begin$\{$tabular$\}\{$c$\}$

Price $\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash ((\backslash )$ Actual $-\backslash \backslash$

A$)$

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $1$ & $50\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $2$ & $52\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $3$ & $51\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $4$ & $50\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $5$ & $48\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $6$ & $52\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $7$ & $51\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $8$ & $50\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $9$ & $54\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $10$ & $52\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $11$ & $53\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $12$ & $51\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $13$ & $50\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $14$ & $51\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline $15$ & $50\backslash \backslash$

$\backslash$hline

$\backslash$end$\{$tabular$\}$