Question: Using the data c. What is the adjusted R-squared indicating? b. Estimate a regression model using real alfalfa prices (Jan 1995 - May 2020) as

Using the data

Using the data c. What is the adjusted R-squared indicating? b. Estimate c. What is the adjusted R-squared indicating? b. Estimate a regression model using real alfalfa prices (Jan 1995 - May 2020) as the dependent variable and the monthly dummy variables and yearly time trend as the independent or explanatory variables. a. Create monthly dummy variables and a yearly time trend for alfalfa prices.

d. Interpret the coefficient of the yearly time trend.

e. Interpret the coefficient of May.

f. Forecast 5 steps ahead.

ASS. Document1 - Word Table Tools David Rei Ga File Home Insert Design Layout References Mailings Review View Help Grammarly Design Layout Tell me what you want to do Share May 9 8 Sop-98 Oct 98 Nov 99 Deu. lan-49 Feb 99 Mar-99 Apr-99 Nominal Price Allalla De IS/ton) CPI Jan-95 89,00 150 500 Feb-99 89,00 150.900 Mar 93 89,00 151 200 Apr-99 9.41 151 300 May.95 94,80 152.100 Jun 95 89,50 152.400 Jul 93 88,20 152 600 AuR-95 162 900 8S40 153.100 Oct 95 85,80 153 500 Nov.95 85,00 153.700 Dec 93 84,60 158.900 11:36 81.60 154 700 Feb-95 84,60 100 OOO es Mar. 16 85,50 156.500 Apr 90 101.00 156.100 May-96 100,30 166.400 Jun-96 98.50 156700 jul-05 96,50 157 000 Aug.95 97,90 157 200 Sep-95 90,00 157.700 Oct 96 95.50 158 200 Nov-98 9/10 156700 Dec-95 97,00 159.100 .an 97 104,00 159.400 Feb 97 113,00 150 700 Mar-97 110,00 109 800 Apr-97 123.00 159.900 May-97 125,30 159 900 lifi 114,00 160.200 Jul 97 107,00 160 400 106.0 160 000 Sep-97 106,00 161200 106,00 161,500 Nov 97 107,00 161 700 Dec-97 102/00 161 800 .an-95 102.00 160 mg 106.00 162 000 Mar 98 102,00 162.000 Apr 95 106,00 162.200 English (United States) Jun 99 14.99 Aug 99 Sep-39 Oct-99 No.99 Dec 99 Jan-00 Feb ou M M-00 Apr-00 May 00 Jun 00 JOU Aug-00 Sep 00 Oct 00 Nov.00 Dec Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar 01 102,00 162.600 99,00 162.000 92,10 163,200 29.20 163.400 87,10 163,500 36,90 169.900 34,40 154,100 164,400 R1,40 164,700 33,70 164,700 33,20 164,800 96,40 165,9001 91,09 106,000 B2,80 180,000 R3,40 106,700 34,90 167,100 79,80 107,900 79,40 160,100 77,00 168,400 74,10 168,800 7,00 169,300 77,00 170.000 77,70 171.000 B1,90 170.900 37.99 171.200 35,10 172,200 89,30 1/2.700 14,70 172,700 36,00 173.000 39,20 173.900 98,00 174,200 29,70 174,000 91,00 175,000 97,90 176,000 95,00 176.100 105,00 176,400 109,00 171.2001 10,00 177,700 104,00 177,400 109,00 177,400 108,00 178,100 105,00 177,000 104,00 177,500 105,00 177,400 May-01 -01 Jul 01 Aug 01 Sep 01 001-01 Now.ol Dec 01 Page 2 of 8 921 words = + 68% H Zur Suche Text hier eingeben w DEU 21:33 09.11.2020 Document1 - Word Table Tools David Rei Ga X File Home Insert Design Layout References Mailings Review View Help Grammarly Design Layout Tell me what you want to do Share Oct-05 Now.cs Dec 05 Jan-06 Feb-on M-06 Apr 00 111,00 2 101,00 177.700 Feb-02 100,00 1/5000 Mar-03 94,80 178.500 Apr 02 103.00 179 300 May-2 100,00 179 100 lun-a2 101,00 179 600 ul-2 100,00 100.000 Aug 02 101,00 180 300 Sep-02 101.00 180 800 Ort-02 100.000 181 200 Nov-02 101.00 181.500 Dec-03 99,00 181.000 .an-03 se so 182 600 Feb-03 96.20 183 600 Mar-03 50,70 183 900 Apron 96,20 103 200 May 03 101.00 182 900 Jun-03 101/00 163.100 Jul 03 - 93,50 183.700 91.90 164 500 Sep-03 90,10 150 100 Oct- 89,10 184.900 Nov 03 86.30 185 000 Dec-2 820 150 000 lan-04 84,2) 186 300 Feb-01 85.10 85,10 186 700 Mar-04 86,20 187 100 Apr 04 92.70 187 400 May-01 108,20 100 200 Jun 10260 100 900 Jul-04 99,70 189.100 Aug 04 99,30 189 200 97,50 189.800 Oct-04 100,00 190 300 95,20 191.700 Dec 04 92,10 191.700 Jan-US 94,90 191,600 Feb-os 94,00 199 400 Mar-15 - 90.00 190.100 Apr-25 106,00 196 700 May-05 114,00 190.600 Jun 03 106,00 198 700 Jul-US1000 194900 A-15 108,00 196 100 . 0 Aug-06 Sep 00 01-06 Nov 08 - Der of Jan Oy Feb- Mar 07 -02 May 07 un-07 Jul 07 105,00 190,000 105,00 199 100 97,60 190.100 36,00 198,100 95,10 199,300 38,40 199,400 109,00 199,700 108,00 200.700 114,00 201,300 112,00 201,600 111,00 202,900 109,00 203,000 111,00 212,800 113,00 201,900 110,00 2120 111,00 203,100 112,00 203.437 115,00 204.225 121,00 205,789 127,00 205,904 149,00 206.755 137,00 207,234 136,00 237,503 135,00 20/11/ 135,00 28.547 135,00 209,190 135,00 210.834 135,00 211,445 1600 212.174 135,00 212,607 144,00 213,44B 145,00 212.142 177,00 215,208 174,00 217,463 179,00 219,016 179,00 218.690 175,00 218.877 171,00 216,995 165,00 213,153 152,00 211,3901 148,00 211.933 141,00 212.705 135,00 212,495 137.00 212,7078 Sep-07 Nov.cz Dec LOOR Mar.OR Apr 09 May-08 Jun-08 HOR Aug 0 Sep 0 Oct 08 NU N-08 Dec OR lan-09 Feb 09 M-09 M A 29-09 Page 3 of 8 921 words English (United States) = + 68% H Zur Suche Text hier eingeben W DEU 21:33 09.11.2020 Document1 - Word Table Tools David Rei Ga X File Home Insert Design Layout References Mailings Review View Help Grammarly Layout Tell me what you want to do Share Design Jan 13 Feb-13 Mar 13 Jun-1) Jul 13 Aug-13 Sop-13 - Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec-13 lan-14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 Jun-14 May 09 123,00 213072 Jun-US 122,00 214 790 Jul-09 110,00 214 726 1041,00 215 445 Sep-09 109,00 216 651 Oct-09 109,00 216.309 Nov 09 109,00 217 24 Dec-2 100/00 217347 Jan-10 111,00 217.488 Feb 10 110,00 217 201 Mar 10 113,00 217 338 Apr-10 112/00 217.403 May-10 120,00 217 290 Jun 10 120,00 217.199 Jul 10 118,00 217.605 Aur 10 119,00 217973 Sep-10 119,00 218 275 Oct 10 118,00 219035 Nov. 10 117,00 219.590 Dec 10 121,00 220.172 11 121,00 221.187 Feb-11 129,00 2219 Mar-11 142.00 223.046 Apr 11 161,00 224.003 May 11 191,00 224 806 Jun 11 185,00 224 806 Jul-11 190,00 225 395 196,00 226. 106 Sep 11 199.od 226 597 Oct 11 204,00 226 700 Nov-11 193,00 227 169 Dec-11 195,00 227.223 Jan 12 193,00 227042 Feb 12 194,00 228 329 Mar 12 200,00 998 BOT Apr-1221000 229.187 May 12 215,00 228713 Inn-13 1. 206,00 228.524 Jul 12 203,00 228.500 A- -12 2000 229 918 Sep-12 200,00 231016 Oxt.12 212,00 231.650 Nov 12 215,00 231 249 Dec 12 217,00 231 221 Sep-1 Oct-14 Norv-14 Dec 14 Jan-15 Feb 15 M-15 217,00 231,679 218,00 232.937 219,00 232,282 213,00 231,797 219,00 231,893 218,00 232,445 206,00 232,900 199,00 233,456 194,00 233,544 193,09 233,569 138,00 234,100 196,00 234,719 1 R6,00 235,200 130,00 235,547 193,00 256,028 207,00 23.458 227,00 236,910 224,00 237,231 217,00 237,498 207,00 237,460 197,00 237,477 199,00 237.4201 102,00 236,903 130,00 256,252 170,00 234,747 107,00 235,312 163,00 235,970 175,00 235,222 137,00 237,001 178,00 237.657 172,00 23,6134 151,00 238,033 160,00 237,490 155,00 237,733 147,00 238017 10,00 237,761 141,00 237,427 137,00 237,514 139,00 237,990 154,00 238.835 146,00 239,4401 14000 240,144 138,00 200.111 137,00 240,595 May 15 Jun 15 Aue 15 Sep 15 Now-15 De-15 - Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar 16 Apr-10 Mar 10 JLIG Aug-10 Page 5 of 8 921 words English (United States) = + 68% H Zur Suche Text hier eingeben W DEU 21:33 09.11.2020 Document1 - Word Table Tools David Rei Ga X File Home Insert Design Layout References Mailings Review View Help Grammarly Design Layout Tell me what you want to do Share May 20 179,00 255,758 Sep 16 Oct-16 Nov-10 DR.16 Jan 17 Feb-17 Mar 17 Apr-17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep-17 Oct 17 Nov-17 Dec 17 91-18 Feb 18 Mar. 1R Apr 18 May-18 Jun 15 Jul-18 Aug 18 Sep 15 Oct 18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 136,00 241 058 135,0 241 641 130,00 241 983 127,00 242.712 126,00 243.717 127,00 244 026 134,00 243.721 150,00 244 058 156,00 243.926 134,00 244 179 153,00 244 328 149,00 245 304 149,00 246.445 152,00 246 570 150,00 247 333 149,00 247 87 153,00 246,816 155,00 249.475 165,00 249.413 183,00 249 997 189/00200640 182,00 261 176 179,00 291.402 177,00 261 905 179/00 252 251 176,00 252.777 173/00 252 662 179,00 262.655 179,00 252 550 180,00 255 181 180,00 204090 198.00 254 943 204,00 205. 167 193,00 256 402 183,00 296087 179,00 256 294 181,00 20693 179,00 257 229 173,00 257 824 1/50 258.444 171,00 208870 171.00 259,050 175,00 267 933 181,00 256,902 May 19 Jun-19 Jul 15 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov 19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Page 7 of 8 921 words English (United States) = + 68 % H Zur Suche Text hier eingeben 0 w DEU 21:33 09.11.2020 ASS. Document1 - Word Table Tools David Rei Ga File Home Insert Design Layout References Mailings Review View Help Grammarly Design Layout Tell me what you want to do Share May 9 8 Sop-98 Oct 98 Nov 99 Deu. lan-49 Feb 99 Mar-99 Apr-99 Nominal Price Allalla De IS/ton) CPI Jan-95 89,00 150 500 Feb-99 89,00 150.900 Mar 93 89,00 151 200 Apr-99 9.41 151 300 May.95 94,80 152.100 Jun 95 89,50 152.400 Jul 93 88,20 152 600 AuR-95 162 900 8S40 153.100 Oct 95 85,80 153 500 Nov.95 85,00 153.700 Dec 93 84,60 158.900 11:36 81.60 154 700 Feb-95 84,60 100 OOO es Mar. 16 85,50 156.500 Apr 90 101.00 156.100 May-96 100,30 166.400 Jun-96 98.50 156700 jul-05 96,50 157 000 Aug.95 97,90 157 200 Sep-95 90,00 157.700 Oct 96 95.50 158 200 Nov-98 9/10 156700 Dec-95 97,00 159.100 .an 97 104,00 159.400 Feb 97 113,00 150 700 Mar-97 110,00 109 800 Apr-97 123.00 159.900 May-97 125,30 159 900 lifi 114,00 160.200 Jul 97 107,00 160 400 106.0 160 000 Sep-97 106,00 161200 106,00 161,500 Nov 97 107,00 161 700 Dec-97 102/00 161 800 .an-95 102.00 160 mg 106.00 162 000 Mar 98 102,00 162.000 Apr 95 106,00 162.200 English (United States) Jun 99 14.99 Aug 99 Sep-39 Oct-99 No.99 Dec 99 Jan-00 Feb ou M M-00 Apr-00 May 00 Jun 00 JOU Aug-00 Sep 00 Oct 00 Nov.00 Dec Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar 01 102,00 162.600 99,00 162.000 92,10 163,200 29.20 163.400 87,10 163,500 36,90 169.900 34,40 154,100 164,400 R1,40 164,700 33,70 164,700 33,20 164,800 96,40 165,9001 91,09 106,000 B2,80 180,000 R3,40 106,700 34,90 167,100 79,80 107,900 79,40 160,100 77,00 168,400 74,10 168,800 7,00 169,300 77,00 170.000 77,70 171.000 B1,90 170.900 37.99 171.200 35,10 172,200 89,30 1/2.700 14,70 172,700 36,00 173.000 39,20 173.900 98,00 174,200 29,70 174,000 91,00 175,000 97,90 176,000 95,00 176.100 105,00 176,400 109,00 171.2001 10,00 177,700 104,00 177,400 109,00 177,400 108,00 178,100 105,00 177,000 104,00 177,500 105,00 177,400 May-01 -01 Jul 01 Aug 01 Sep 01 001-01 Now.ol Dec 01 Page 2 of 8 921 words = + 68% H Zur Suche Text hier eingeben w DEU 21:33 09.11.2020 Document1 - Word Table Tools David Rei Ga X File Home Insert Design Layout References Mailings Review View Help Grammarly Design Layout Tell me what you want to do Share Oct-05 Now.cs Dec 05 Jan-06 Feb-on M-06 Apr 00 111,00 2 101,00 177.700 Feb-02 100,00 1/5000 Mar-03 94,80 178.500 Apr 02 103.00 179 300 May-2 100,00 179 100 lun-a2 101,00 179 600 ul-2 100,00 100.000 Aug 02 101,00 180 300 Sep-02 101.00 180 800 Ort-02 100.000 181 200 Nov-02 101.00 181.500 Dec-03 99,00 181.000 .an-03 se so 182 600 Feb-03 96.20 183 600 Mar-03 50,70 183 900 Apron 96,20 103 200 May 03 101.00 182 900 Jun-03 101/00 163.100 Jul 03 - 93,50 183.700 91.90 164 500 Sep-03 90,10 150 100 Oct- 89,10 184.900 Nov 03 86.30 185 000 Dec-2 820 150 000 lan-04 84,2) 186 300 Feb-01 85.10 85,10 186 700 Mar-04 86,20 187 100 Apr 04 92.70 187 400 May-01 108,20 100 200 Jun 10260 100 900 Jul-04 99,70 189.100 Aug 04 99,30 189 200 97,50 189.800 Oct-04 100,00 190 300 95,20 191.700 Dec 04 92,10 191.700 Jan-US 94,90 191,600 Feb-os 94,00 199 400 Mar-15 - 90.00 190.100 Apr-25 106,00 196 700 May-05 114,00 190.600 Jun 03 106,00 198 700 Jul-US1000 194900 A-15 108,00 196 100 . 0 Aug-06 Sep 00 01-06 Nov 08 - Der of Jan Oy Feb- Mar 07 -02 May 07 un-07 Jul 07 105,00 190,000 105,00 199 100 97,60 190.100 36,00 198,100 95,10 199,300 38,40 199,400 109,00 199,700 108,00 200.700 114,00 201,300 112,00 201,600 111,00 202,900 109,00 203,000 111,00 212,800 113,00 201,900 110,00 2120 111,00 203,100 112,00 203.437 115,00 204.225 121,00 205,789 127,00 205,904 149,00 206.755 137,00 207,234 136,00 237,503 135,00 20/11/ 135,00 28.547 135,00 209,190 135,00 210.834 135,00 211,445 1600 212.174 135,00 212,607 144,00 213,44B 145,00 212.142 177,00 215,208 174,00 217,463 179,00 219,016 179,00 218.690 175,00 218.877 171,00 216,995 165,00 213,153 152,00 211,3901 148,00 211.933 141,00 212.705 135,00 212,495 137.00 212,7078 Sep-07 Nov.cz Dec LOOR Mar.OR Apr 09 May-08 Jun-08 HOR Aug 0 Sep 0 Oct 08 NU N-08 Dec OR lan-09 Feb 09 M-09 M A 29-09 Page 3 of 8 921 words English (United States) = + 68% H Zur Suche Text hier eingeben W DEU 21:33 09.11.2020 Document1 - Word Table Tools David Rei Ga X File Home Insert Design Layout References Mailings Review View Help Grammarly Layout Tell me what you want to do Share Design Jan 13 Feb-13 Mar 13 Jun-1) Jul 13 Aug-13 Sop-13 - Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec-13 lan-14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 Jun-14 May 09 123,00 213072 Jun-US 122,00 214 790 Jul-09 110,00 214 726 1041,00 215 445 Sep-09 109,00 216 651 Oct-09 109,00 216.309 Nov 09 109,00 217 24 Dec-2 100/00 217347 Jan-10 111,00 217.488 Feb 10 110,00 217 201 Mar 10 113,00 217 338 Apr-10 112/00 217.403 May-10 120,00 217 290 Jun 10 120,00 217.199 Jul 10 118,00 217.605 Aur 10 119,00 217973 Sep-10 119,00 218 275 Oct 10 118,00 219035 Nov. 10 117,00 219.590 Dec 10 121,00 220.172 11 121,00 221.187 Feb-11 129,00 2219 Mar-11 142.00 223.046 Apr 11 161,00 224.003 May 11 191,00 224 806 Jun 11 185,00 224 806 Jul-11 190,00 225 395 196,00 226. 106 Sep 11 199.od 226 597 Oct 11 204,00 226 700 Nov-11 193,00 227 169 Dec-11 195,00 227.223 Jan 12 193,00 227042 Feb 12 194,00 228 329 Mar 12 200,00 998 BOT Apr-1221000 229.187 May 12 215,00 228713 Inn-13 1. 206,00 228.524 Jul 12 203,00 228.500 A- -12 2000 229 918 Sep-12 200,00 231016 Oxt.12 212,00 231.650 Nov 12 215,00 231 249 Dec 12 217,00 231 221 Sep-1 Oct-14 Norv-14 Dec 14 Jan-15 Feb 15 M-15 217,00 231,679 218,00 232.937 219,00 232,282 213,00 231,797 219,00 231,893 218,00 232,445 206,00 232,900 199,00 233,456 194,00 233,544 193,09 233,569 138,00 234,100 196,00 234,719 1 R6,00 235,200 130,00 235,547 193,00 256,028 207,00 23.458 227,00 236,910 224,00 237,231 217,00 237,498 207,00 237,460 197,00 237,477 199,00 237.4201 102,00 236,903 130,00 256,252 170,00 234,747 107,00 235,312 163,00 235,970 175,00 235,222 137,00 237,001 178,00 237.657 172,00 23,6134 151,00 238,033 160,00 237,490 155,00 237,733 147,00 238017 10,00 237,761 141,00 237,427 137,00 237,514 139,00 237,990 154,00 238.835 146,00 239,4401 14000 240,144 138,00 200.111 137,00 240,595 May 15 Jun 15 Aue 15 Sep 15 Now-15 De-15 - Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar 16 Apr-10 Mar 10 JLIG Aug-10 Page 5 of 8 921 words English (United States) = + 68% H Zur Suche Text hier eingeben W DEU 21:33 09.11.2020 Document1 - Word Table Tools David Rei Ga X File Home Insert Design Layout References Mailings Review View Help Grammarly Design Layout Tell me what you want to do Share May 20 179,00 255,758 Sep 16 Oct-16 Nov-10 DR.16 Jan 17 Feb-17 Mar 17 Apr-17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep-17 Oct 17 Nov-17 Dec 17 91-18 Feb 18 Mar. 1R Apr 18 May-18 Jun 15 Jul-18 Aug 18 Sep 15 Oct 18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 136,00 241 058 135,0 241 641 130,00 241 983 127,00 242.712 126,00 243.717 127,00 244 026 134,00 243.721 150,00 244 058 156,00 243.926 134,00 244 179 153,00 244 328 149,00 245 304 149,00 246.445 152,00 246 570 150,00 247 333 149,00 247 87 153,00 246,816 155,00 249.475 165,00 249.413 183,00 249 997 189/00200640 182,00 261 176 179,00 291.402 177,00 261 905 179/00 252 251 176,00 252.777 173/00 252 662 179,00 262.655 179,00 252 550 180,00 255 181 180,00 204090 198.00 254 943 204,00 205. 167 193,00 256 402 183,00 296087 179,00 256 294 181,00 20693 179,00 257 229 173,00 257 824 1/50 258.444 171,00 208870 171.00 259,050 175,00 267 933 181,00 256,902 May 19 Jun-19 Jul 15 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov 19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Page 7 of 8 921 words English (United States) = + 68 % H Zur Suche Text hier eingeben 0 w DEU 21:33 09.11.2020

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