Using the Excel data file titled "STAT 510 Data Set 2". This file presents quarterly data from the first quarter of 1935 through the second quarter of 2020 on U.S. treasury bill rates (TBILL). For these questions, I do not need to see the Megastat files you used for your underlying work. I only need to see the work you did on calculating the within-sample RMSE's, an indication of which model you chose, and the actual forecast values. For each question, you will be asked to forecast the next four quarters (2020 Quarter 3 through 2021 Quarter 2) and to use the within-sample forecasting technique in determining your forecasting model. It is possible to have negative forecasted values even though treasury bill rates are not going to be negative (we hope).

*only use the data from 1986 Quarter 1 through 2020 Quarter 2.*

1.To save time, consider only the following possible forecasting models:

First Order Trend Polynomial

Second Order Trend Polynomial

Third Order Trend Polynomial

Fourth Order Trend Polynomial

Simple Exponential Smoothing Model with ? = 0.90

Holt Exponential Smoothing Model with ? = 0.90 and ? = 0.10

Again, provide your work on calculating the within RMSE values and the actual forecast.

Please let me know if you are unable to view the excel data / how to fix this issue

Quarterly 3-Month Treasury Bill Rates 1935 Quarter 1 to 2020 Quarter 2 Year Quarter 1935 1935 1935 1935 1936 1936 1936 1936 1937 1937 1937 1937 1938 1938 1938 1938 1939 1939 1939 1939 1940 1940 1940 1940 1941 1941 1941 1941 1942 1942 1942 1942 1943 1943 1943 1943 1944 1944 1944 1944 1945 TBILL 1 0.527 2 0.153 3 0.183 4 0.250 1 0.180 2 0.150 3 0.170 4 0.170 1 0.200 2 0.200 3 0.170 4 0.120 1 0.233 2 0.443 3 0.293 4 0.133 1 0.087 2 0.063 3 0.070 4 0.040 1 0.030 2 0.030 3 0.077 4 0.047 1 0.017 2 0.060 3 0.047 4 0.020 1 0.057 2 0.110 3 0.117 4 0.233 1 0.257 2 0.353 3 0.380 4 0.380 1 0.380 2 0.380 3 0.380 4 0.380 1 0.380 1945 1945 1945 1946 1946 1946 1946 1947 1947 1947 1947 1948 1948 1948 1948 1949 1949 1949 1949 1950 1950 1950 1950 1951 1951 1951 1951 1952 1952 1952 1952 1953 1953 1953 1953 1954 1954 1954 1954 1955 1955 1955 1955 1956 1956 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.380 0.737 0.907 0.990 1.000 1.050 1.140 1.170 1.170 1.043 1.077 1.103 1.153 1.220 1.337 1.367 1.490 1.603 1.610 1.567 1.647 1.783 1.893 1.980 2.153 1.957 1.473 1.060 0.790 0.883 1.020 1.223 1.483 1956 1956 1957 1957 1957 1957 1958 1958 1958 1958 1959 1959 1959 1959 1960 1960 1960 1960 1961 1961 1961 1961 1962 1962 1962 1962 1963 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1964 1964 1965 1965 1965 1965 1966 1966 1966 1966 1967 1967 1967 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1.857 2.337 2.327 2.567 2.583 3.033 3.097 3.140 3.353 3.310 1.757 0.957 1.680 2.690 2.773 3.000 3.540 4.230 3.873 2.993 2.360 2.307 2.350 2.303 2.303 2.460 2.723 2.717 2.840 2.813 2.907 2.940 3.293 3.497 3.530 3.477 3.497 3.683 3.890 3.873 3.867 4.167 4.610 4.587 5.043 1967 1968 1968 1968 1968 1969 1969 1969 1969 1970 1970 1970 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 1974 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1975 1976 1976 1976 1976 1977 1977 1977 1977 1978 1978 1978 1978 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5.210 4.513 3.660 4.300 4.753 5.050 5.520 5.197 5.587 6.093 6.197 7.023 7.353 7.210 6.677 6.327 5.353 3.840 4.250 5.010 4.230 3.437 3.770 4.220 4.863 5.700 6.603 8.323 7.500 7.617 8.153 8.190 7.360 5.750 5.393 6.330 5.627 4.917 5.157 5.150 4.673 4.630 4.840 5.497 6.110 1979 1979 1979 1979 1980 1980 1980 1980 1981 1981 1981 1981 1982 1982 1982 1982 1983 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 1984 1985 1985 1985 1985 1986 1986 1986 1986 1987 1987 1987 1987 1988 1988 1988 1988 1989 1989 1989 1989 1990 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 6.393 6.477 7.313 8.570 9.383 9.377 9.673 11.843 13.353 9.617 9.153 13.613 14.390 14.907 15.053 11.750 12.813 12.420 9.317 7.907 8.107 8.397 9.140 8.800 9.170 9.797 10.320 8.803 8.183 7.460 7.107 7.167 6.897 6.140 5.523 5.353 5.537 5.657 6.043 5.863 5.723 6.210 7.010 7.727 8.540 1990 1990 1990 1991 1991 1991 1991 1992 1992 1992 1992 1993 1993 1993 1993 1994 1994 1994 1994 1995 1995 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 8.410 7.843 7.653 7.760 7.747 7.477 6.990 6.023 5.560 5.377 4.540 3.893 3.680 3.083 3.070 2.960 2.967 3.003 3.060 3.243 3.987 4.477 5.280 5.737 5.597 5.367 5.260 4.930 5.020 5.097 4.977 5.060 5.047 5.047 5.090 5.053 4.977 4.823 4.253 4.407 4.453 4.650 5.043 5.520 5.713 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 6.017 6.017 4.817 3.660 3.170 1.907 1.720 1.713 1.643 1.333 1.157 1.040 0.930 0.917 0.917 1.077 1.487 2.007 2.537 2.863 3.360 3.827 4.393 4.703 4.907 4.903 4.983 4.737 4.303 3.390 2.043 1.627 1.493 0.297 0.213 0.173 0.157 0.057 0.107 0.147 0.157 0.137 0.127 0.047 0.023 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 0.013 0.067 0.087 0.103 0.087 0.087 0.050 0.033 0.063 0.047 0.033 0.027 0.023 0.027 0.020 0.040 0.123 0.287 0.257 0.297 0.430 0.590 0.890 1.037 1.207 1.560 1.840 2.040 2.317 2.387 2.300