Using the factory energy cost data in the table below, find the best moving average and...

 

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Using the factory energy cost data in the table below, find the best moving average and exponential smoothing models. Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Energy Costs 15,349.04 15,416.94 15,928.82 16,611.47 16,916.86 16,830.85 16,812.27 17,103.12 16,852.33 17,839.58 18,187.11 18,776.38 18,870.58 18,911.72 19,324.33 Find the best number of years to use in a moving average forecast based on MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. 13 14 15 Number of years 2 3 4 MSE The -Select- model is better. Find the best single exponential smoothing model by evaluating the MSE from 0.1 to 0.9, in increments of 0.1. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. Alpha 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 MSE The model based on a smoothing constant of -Select- is the best. Compare the forecasting ability of the best moving average and single exponential smoothing models with a regression model. The regression equation is Y = 15,085.93 + 278.69(Year) with MSE = 93,860.98. Which model would you choose based on MSE? The -Select- model should be chosen. Using the factory energy cost data in the table below, find the best moving average and exponential smoothing models. Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Energy Costs 15,349.04 15,416.94 15,928.82 16,611.47 16,916.86 16,830.85 16,812.27 17,103.12 16,852.33 17,839.58 18,187.11 18,776.38 18,870.58 18,911.72 19,324.33 Find the best number of years to use in a moving average forecast based on MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. 13 14 15 Number of years 2 3 4 MSE The -Select- model is better. Find the best single exponential smoothing model by evaluating the MSE from 0.1 to 0.9, in increments of 0.1. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. Alpha 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 MSE The model based on a smoothing constant of -Select- is the best. Compare the forecasting ability of the best moving average and single exponential smoothing models with a regression model. The regression equation is Y = 15,085.93 + 278.69(Year) with MSE = 93,860.98. Which model would you choose based on MSE? The -Select- model should be chosen.