W$24$ BUAD$306-$ Murphy Assignment $2$ Forecasting

Due: Tues, $1/16/24$ at $11$:$59$pm EST

Background: Wes and Steve are partners in a lunch truck company that operates a central kitchen and operates lunch trucks

that travel to various locations in Philadelphia, Monday$-$Friday. The lunch trucks deliver pre$-$packaged healthy sandwich and

salad alternatives, fresh fruit and pre$-$packaged low$-$fat desserts and canned beverages. Together, the partners have to make

many decisions about how to structure the operational aspects of the business so that it is cost effective, efficient and

profitable.

Current Situation: Steve and Wes know they must prepare$/$use forecasts to make effective decisions for the business. They

are presently faced with $3$ situations for analyzing$/$preparing forecast data:

Analysis $1$: Wes and Steve must decide how many bananas to purchase for the business$$especially since they are perishable

and can get damaged$/$smooshed$.$ The pair have documented banana sales for $12$ periods as shown below and other relevant

data on Page $2$ and has decided to create a forecast for period $13$ using $4$ different methods:

$1.$ Na$$ve

$2.$ Moving Average

$3.$ Weighted Moving Average

$4.$ Exponential Smoothing

Analysis $2$: After analyzing the last $4$ weeks of sales data, Steve and West have determined that their business has seasonality

each week and is growing in an upward trend. They have identified the following trend equation for their daily sales and

seasonal relatives for each workday, Monday through Friday as shown below. The pair would like to create a forecast for week

$5$ using this information:

F$($t$)=$ $$54,950+$ $$141$x

Where t $=1$ on THURSDAY of Week $1$ and where seasonal relatives are as follows:

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

$\mathrm{.}80\mathrm{.}951\mathrm{.}101\mathrm{.}251\mathrm{.}50$

Analysis $3$: Steve and Wes have developed $2$ forecasting techniques for food truck sales $($shown in $$00)$ and want to confirm

which is more accurate. They have supplied the following table with actual$/$forecasted sales for Technique A and Technique B$.$

Day Actual Sales Forecast A Forecast B

$148--46$

$242--41$

$346--44$

$4615866$

$5655770$

$6626755$

$7525548$

$8585753$

$9676573$

$10726570$

Period Sales $($units$)$ Period Sales $($units$)$

$11007200$

$2888196$

$31479231$

$415710245$

$519511295$

$618712324$

PLEASE

DO NOT

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Assignment $2$ Forecasting LAST NAME $\_\_\_$ FIRST: $\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$

W$24$ BUAD$306-$ Murphy Due: Tues, $1/16/24$ at $11$:$59$pm EST $(25$ pts$)$

Instructions: Print this page, reproduce by hand or complete via computer. Regardless, you must note answers in the box

provided ONLY. All supporting math must be shown in the corresponding space$$rounding answers to $2$ decimal points. If

you write an answer and math is not included or does not correspond, you will receive no points. Note: You must write

neatly. If I cannot read it$,$ you will receive zero points. Per instructions, do NOT cross out work; use white out or redo!

When completed: Take a photo of this page$/$save file and upload via the corresponding Assignment link in Canvas by the due

date. Remember: No $.$HEIC files arepermitted. No red ink!

For answers, only include #s$.$

No verbiage. I will look to left for

supporting info.

$1.$ Na$$ve Forecast Answer:

Math $($must show$)$: $\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_(2$ pts$)$

Rationale $($must state in $1$ sentence$)$: $\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_$

$2.$ Four Period Moving Average $(4$PMA$)$ Answer:

Math $($mustshow$)$: $(2$ pts$)$

$3.$ Weighted Moving Average using weights of $\mathrm{.}5,\mathrm{.}3$and $\mathrm{.}2$ Answer:

Math $($mustshow$)$: $(2$ pts$)$

$4.$ Exponential Smoothing Forecast using $\backslash$alpha $=\mathrm{.}20$ Answer:

and initial forecast for Period $8$ is $210.$ Must show math below: $(3$ pts$)$

ANALYSIS $1$ Use data provided on Page $1$

W$24$ BUAD$306-$ Murphy Assignment $2$ Page $2$

$5.$ Create the relevant T$-$table for solving Analysis $2$: $(2$ pts$)$

$6.$ What is the forecast for each weekday of Week $5($you must include math$)$: $(5$ pts$)$

Day Math Answer

Monday

$=$

Tuesday

$=$

Wednesday

$=$

Thursday

$=$

Friday

$=$

$7.$ With the data provided, calculate MAD and MSE for each forecasting technique $($no need to convert to $$00)$: $(8$ pts$)$

Forecast A Work: Forecast B Work:

$8.$ Which technique would you recommend? $\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_(1$ pt$)$

ANALYSIS $2$ Use data provided on Page $1$

ANALYSIS $3$ Use data provided on Page $1$