We have calculated three forecasts using the demand data. First, for months $4$ through $10,$ we have developed the exponentially smoothing forecasts using a forecast for month $3($F$3)$ of $120\mathrm{.}0$ and an alpha of $0\mathrm{.}3.$ Second, we have calculated the three$-$month moving$-$average forecast for months $4$ through $10.$ Third, we have calculated the weighted moving average for months $4$ through $10,$ using weights of $\mathrm{.}60,\mathrm{.}30,$ and $\mathrm{.}10,$ with $0\mathrm{.}60$ applied to the most recent data. We have also calculated the Mean Absolute Deviation $($MAD$)$ and the Cumulative sum of Forecast Error $($CFE$)$ for each forecasting procedure.

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Exponential Smoothing

Simple Moving Average

Weighted Moving Average

CFE

$11\mathrm{.}19$

$14\mathrm{.}00$

$12\mathrm{.}80$

MAD

$6\mathrm{.}28$

$6\mathrm{.}00$

$7\mathrm{.}17$

Which forecasting method would be chosen based on MAD?

Group of answer choices

Exponencial Smoothing

Simple Moving Average

Weighted Moving Average