We have studied various forecasting methods throughout the term. Use Reported Pandemic Deaths Data to answer the questions pertaining using MA(2), Exponential Smoothing (alpha = .9) and regression to make forecasts and compute MAE, MSE, and MAPE. The data goes from May 1 to December 2. Also, May 1 starts at day 76 which is fine.

Using a Two-Day Moving Average model (MA 2) compute the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

Select one:

a. .2%

b. 3.34%

c. 1.01%

d. 2.025%

D B C 1 Date Time (Days) Reported Deaths 2 1-May 76 61,356 3 2-May 77 62,918 4 3-May 78 64,150 5 4-May 79 65,185 6 5-May 80 67,637 7 6-May 81 69,585 8 7-May 82 72,337 9 8-May 83 74,135 10 9-May 84 75,580 11 10-May 85 76,616 12 11-May 86 77,508 13 12-May 87 78,994 14 13-May 88 80,698 15 14-May 89 82,577 16 15-May 90 84,084 17 16-May 91 85,071 18 17-May 92 85,920 19 18-May 93 86,768 20 19-May 94 88,094 21 20-May 95 89,493 22 21-May 96 90,887 23 22-May 97 92,228 24 23-May 98 93,291 25 24-May 99 93,971 26 25-May 100 94,530 27 26-May 95,175 28 27-May 102 96,496 29 28-May 103 97,727 30 29-May 104 98,911 31 30-May 105 99,843 32 31-May 106 100,495 33 1-Jun 107 101,163 34 2-Jun 108 102,125 35 3-Jun 109 103,118 36 4-Jun 110 104,011 37 5-Jun 111 104,837 38 6-Jun 112 105,565 39 7-Jun 113 106,012 101 Reported Pandemic Deaths 40 8-Jun 41 42 43 9-Jun 10-Jun 11-Jun 12-Jun 13-Jun 44 45 46 47 14-Jun 15-Jun 16-Jun 121 48 49 17-Jun 50 18-Jun 51 125 52 53 54 55 56 57 19-Jun 20-Jun 21-Jun 22-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun 25-Jun 26-Jun 27-Jun 28-Jun 29-Jun 30-Jun 1-Jul 58 59 B D 114 106,673 115 107,575 116 108,462 117 109,361 118 110,136 119 110,830 120 111,186 111,567 122 112,297 123 113,064 124 113,769 114,424 126 115,053 127 115,347 128 115,633 129 116,343 130 117,067 131 117,714 132 118,351 133 118,862 134 119,133 135 119,465 136 120,061 137 120,762 138 121,457 122,055 140 122,361 141 122,570 142 122,813 143 123,736 144 124,543 145 125,410 146 12 147 127,021 148 127,497 149 127,824 150 128,560 151 129,418 152 130,365 Reported Pandemic Deaths 60 61 62 63 64 2-Jul 65 139 3-Jul 4-Jul 66 67 5-Jul 6-Jul 68 69 7-Jul 8-Jul 70 71 9-Jul 10-Jul 72 73 74 75 11-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul 14-Jul 15-Jul 16-Jul 76 77 78 A B D 17-Jul 79 80 153 154 18-Jul 19-Jul 81 155 82 156 83 157 158 84 85 159 86 87 160 161 20-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 27-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 162 88 89 163 90 164 165 91 92 93 166 167 94 168 95 169 96 170 97 98 99 171 172 173 131,316 132,188 132,715 133,078 134,117 135,288 136,344 137,520 138,543 139,102 140,162 141,284 142,776 144,035 145,347 146,537 147,035 147,554 148,809 150,155 151,406 152,739 153,828 154,444 154,870 156,196 157,715 158,878 160,094 161,315 161,934 162,341 163,537 164,957 166,091 167,214 168,243 168,815 169,158 100 174 175 101 102 176 177 103 104 105 1-Aug 2-Aug 3-Aug 4-Aug 5-Aug 6-Aug 7-Aug 8-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug 11-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug 17-Aug 18-Aug 19-Aug 20-Aug 21-Aug 22-Aug 23-Aug 24-Aug 178 179 180 106 107 181 182 108 109 183 184 110 111 185 186 187 112 113 114 115 188 189 116 190 191 117 Reported Pandemic Deaths 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 25-Aug 26-Aug 27-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug 31-Aug 1-Sep 2-Sep 3-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep 6-Sep 7-Sep 8-Sep 9-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep 12-Sep 13-Sep 14-Sep 15-Sep 16-Sep 17-Sep 18-Sep 19-Sep 20-Sep 21-Sep 22-Sep 23-Sep 24-Sep 25-Sep 26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 29-Sep 30-Sep 1-Oct 192 170,305 193 171,603 194 172,732 195 173,756 196 174,771 197 175,246 198 175,612 199 176,639 200 177,671 201 178,741 202 179,739 203 180,657 204 181,106 205 181,331 206 181,689 207 182,773 208 183,943 209 184,961 210 185,771 211 186,161 212 186,565 213 187,596 214 188,796 215 189,659 216 190,560 217 191,300 218 191,627 219 191,914 220 192,768 221 193,927 222 194,848 223 195,692 224 196,561 225 196,868 226 197,125 227 197,864 228 198,925 199,776 230 200,611 Reported Pandemic Deaths 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 229 156 2-Oct A B D 230 156 157 2-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct 231 158 159 232 233 5-Oct 6-Oct 234 160 161 7-Oct 235 8-Oct 236 162 163 164 237 9-Oct 10-Oct 165 11-Oct 12-Oct 238 239 240 166 167 13-Oct 241 168 14-Oct 242 169 243 15-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct 170 171 172 244 245 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct 21-Oct 22-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 26-Oct 27-Oct 28-Oct 29-Oct 30-Oct 31-Oct 1-Nov 2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov 5-Nov 6-Nov 7-Nov 8-Nov 9-Nov 10-Nov 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 200,611 201,352 201,715 202,041 202,675 203,591 204,577 205,470 206,135 206,601 206,888 207,578 208,389 209,340 210,217 210,997 211,390 211,846 212,678 213,702 214,845 218,965 222102 222618 222976 223625 224559 225477 226482 227439 228180 228589 229129 230397 231543 232657 233817 234716 235154 236062 268 269 Reported Pandemic Deaths A B TUU LUU 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov 5-Nov 6-Nov 7-Nov 8-Nov 9-Nov 10-Nov 11-Nov 12-Nov 13-Nov 14-Nov 15-Nov 16-Nov 17-Nov 18-Nov 19-Nov 20-Nov 21-Nov 22-Nov 23-Nov 24-Nov 25-Nov 26-Nov 27-Nov 28-Nov 29-Nov 30-Nov 1-Dec 2-Dec 3-Dec 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 LUULUU 228589 229129 230397 231543 232657 233817 234716 235154 236062 237350 238858 239634 241179 242363 242953 243674 245090 246956 249162 250782 251740 253097 254496 256408 258619 259848 261040 262287 263039 264463 266769