Question: We talked about how a dominant existing technology eventually reaches the maximum performance allowed by the laws of nature and then must be replaced by

We talked about how a dominant existing technology eventually reaches the maximum performance allowed by the laws of nature and then must be replaced by a new technology in order for continuing progress to be made. We represented this with a series of nested Technology S-Curves (TSCs). The TSC representing an older technology is eventually supplanted by the TSC representing a newer technology. We gave examples of lighting technologies: the incandescent lamp having been supplanted by the fluorescent lamp, which in turn has been supplanted by LEDs. Consider a pair of nested TSCs, the first representing established Technology A (TSC-A) and the second representing new Technology B (TSC-B) which will eventually supplant Technology A. Where in the pair of nested TSCs would technology entrepreneurs have the most promising chance to seize opportunity and establish a new business based on a new dominant technology? Select the best answer from the entries below.

a.

Nearing the end of TSC-A

b.

Early after the start of TSC-B

c.

After performance on TSC-B begins to surpass current performance on TSC-A.

d.

Part way along the rapid improvement stage of either TSC-A or TSC-B

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