Question: - What is meant by a conditional variance and why is it a good measure of uncertainty - Outlined and Describe the ARCH model, the

- What is meant by a conditional variance and why is it a good measure of uncertainty - Outlined and Describe the ARCH model, the GARCH model and the I-GARCH model - Outline one of the extensions to the basic GARCH family of models 3 - What is meant by an optimal forecast and what makes a forecast optimal - How would you asses the accuracy of a forecast? - Suppose you had two or more competing forecasts for the same variable, how would you make use of these forecasts 4 - What is Wold's decomposition - Describe an AR and MA model. How are they related - Show how a low order AR model mat be represented as a high order MA model - Outline the two types of EWMA models. What are their relative strength? 5 - How would you test the optimality of a forecast - Give a test for forecast encompassing - What is meant by Forecast averaging and whw should it work

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