Question: What is the overall expected value (EV) if Remulon decides to proceed with the clinical trials? 55*$4.2B+.35*$2.15B+.10*$1.5B Large: 55%, $4.2B YES: 60% Medium: 35%, $2.15B

  1. What is the overall expected value (EV) if Remulon decides to proceed with the clinical trials?
What is the overall expected value (EV) if
55*$4.2B+.35*$2.15B+.10*$1.5B Large: 55%, $4.2B YES: 60% Medium: 35%, $2.15B 2 decisions 3 Chance Events Trials? Small: 10%, $1.5B Trials FDA Approval? FDA Approval Revenue Only FDA Cost Approval Market Response approval? $25M ? Minor side effects: 15% NO: 40% Lose $170M NO: 65% YES Cost Result of $145M trials Major side FDA Cost Approval effects: 20% approval? $25M ? Clinical Trials? Large: 35%, $2.3B YES: 35% Unsuccessful: Medium: 50%, $1.4B NO Nothing Lose 65% lost $145M Small: 15%, $0.85B Revenue Only

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