What relationship was highlighted in $2015$ between economic surprises and the $6-$month percentage change in the S&P $500?$

The economy had overall negative surprises throughout the year, and the S&P $500$ increased in the early part of the year but finished slightly lower.

The conomy had overallinegative surprises throughout the year, but the S&P $500$ had a strong rally and finished much higher.

The economy had overall positive surprises throughout the year, and the $$P_{500}$ had a strong rally and finished much higher. a ${?}_5$ ais

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