When presented with the following two scenarios, managers wrongly judged that Scenario X was more probable than Scenario Y. Scenario X is that total consumer spending in Australia on electrical goods will increase by 20% over the next 10 years because people will replace their current products with more energy efficient versions. Scenario Y is that total consumer spending in Australia on electrical goods will increase by 20% over the next 10 years. This is an example of:

Select one:

a. ignoring regression to the mean

b. expecting chance to be self correcting

c. illusory correlation

d. the conjunction fallacy