When we estimate the Occurrence Probability of a potential risk event, we can use the Historical data modeling, Simulated data modeling, Bayesian analysis (laws of probability). But if in the absence of data and modeling tools, how would you assess the Probability that certain events might occur? Think about how Tesla could have better predicted the market response to the Twitter acquisition, or how Facebook might estimate the probability of a "decline in investor confidence" due to lack of focus on social responsibility (ESG).